Kairos
Stock Research
STMicroelectronics has more upside than Infineon, though it is priced accordingly. It leads in space by selling RF chips for Starlink terminals, 60% of its data-center revenue comes from optics and microcontrollers rather than power chips, and it makes its own substrate wafers in Sicily while Infineon outsources. Infineon is the safer play: STM's margins fell to zero in the last trough versus Infineon's steady 10%, and competitors may take some of its Starlink business. x.com x.comÂ
STMicroelectronics still looks expensive at about 35 times forward earnings because 50-60% of its revenue comes from automotive and industrial. Even if that cycle turns and every other segment doubled, which is unlikely, the multiple is hard to justify. Its growth areas are real: AI and data-center chips, expected to grow from $1B in 2026 to $2B in 2027; space, with parts in 90% of LEO satellites and ground dishes; and physical and edge AI sensors. The stock may still do well over five years. x.com x.comÂ
Infineon is a better pick than STMicroelectronics because data-center power chip demand is set to inflect while its smartphone exposure is much lower. About a fifth of STM's revenue still comes from smartphones, which are vulnerable to soaring memory prices. Rising rack power densities and 800V rollouts should lift demand, and Infineon has very competitive SiC and GaN products. Data-center power chips could top a quarter of Infineon's sales, more counting energy storage. x.com x.comÂ
STMicroelectronics is a European growth stock for the long-term space trend as a chip supplier to SpaceX and Tesla. It delivers more than 5 million chips a day for Starlink, needed for the phased-array antennas in its terminals, and has over 40 years of expertise in chips that withstand cosmic radiation. x.comÂ
Infineon, STMicroelectronics and NXP have little value upside left from humanoid robotics after rallying hard on the AI datacenter theme. Infineon's CEO said humanoids could eventually rival AI datacenters as a revenue opportunity, about 20% of sales, yet Infineon saw insider sales this week. Humanoids may create few real bottlenecks: about 60% of parts come from the existing auto supply chain, most value will likely accrue in China and OEMs will integrate vertically, leaving heavy competition. … Show more
STMicroelectronics is a cheap option on SpaceX taking off in both neocloud and space, since its LEO business, about 10% of sales, supplies all of Starlink. At under 30x 2027 estimated earnings, it also brings full analog and power-semiconductor exposure, and those power semis are its link to the neocloud side. x.com x.comÂ
STMicroelectronics offers rare asymmetry for a large cap: a bear case in line with the S&P 500, a slightly better base case and a wildly better bull case. 2026 marked an inflection in its data-center business, with a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Amazon agreement and guidance raised from $1B before 2030 to well above $2B in 2027. A base case with a modest AI business implies 15% annual growth through 2030; if photonics, power and robotics reach a third of revenue, 30-50%. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Pure or heavy silicon carbide players such as STMicroelectronics, onsemi and Wolfspeed look higher-risk and currently unappealing in the AI data-center shift to 800V DC power and solid-state transformers. The better risk/reward in that transition sits with power-electronics names positioned for it, such as Enphase and SolarEdge, whose bidirectional power-conversion know-how suits transformers that step 13 kV utility power down to 800V DC and must handle sudden GPU load swings. x.comÂ
STMicroelectronics supplies key chips for Starlink satellites and terminals, so more SpaceX launches mean more demand for STMicro. Space and semiconductor themes are converging in the stock, which is emerging from a 26-year base with accumulation, and the market is likely starting to price in the SpaceX IPO narrative. x.comÂ
Power semiconductors should deliver index-beating returns, though the trade is not early and the easy money was made long ago. The power-semi revenue cycle already started last year, and the ecosystem is broad enough that the whole sector should do well. STMicroelectronics and Infineon are the buys. x.comÂ
STMicroelectronics is low quality next to its "dumb chip" peers, weighed down by a messy international ownership structure where it matters who calls the shots. Italy and France may be the two worst major countries to do business in. That view holds against a post the author replies to, which cites its 90% share of chips for SpaceX's Starlink satellites and doubled 2026 and 2027 revenue targets. x.comÂ
Infineon trades at a discount to lower-quality global peers. STMicroelectronics, for one, is lower quality than Infineon. x.com x.comÂ
