Ambarella is one of only a couple of Western merchant suppliers of low-power edge AI vision chips and the one selling into robotics today; its lock is software, since CVflow stacks get designed in years before volume and nobody re-qualifies a vision pipeline mid-program. TTM revenue is $405M, up 17% at a 59% gross margin, with $278M of cash against $13M of debt. At 6.2x EV/sales, the NXP talks are the whole story; if NXP walks, it re-rates to a loss-making chip name with a slow robotics ramp. … Show more

Analog and power semiconductor stocks such as ON Semiconductor, Texas Instruments and NXP are pricing far ahead of their fundamentals. Even with price hikes they are not back to 2022 revenue, yet their share prices have risen multifold. The semiconductor supercycle is lifting even these laggards. x.com  x.com 

STMicroelectronics offers rare asymmetry for a large cap: a bear case in line with the S&P 500, a slightly better base case and a wildly better bull case. 2026 marked an inflection in its data-center business, with a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Amazon agreement and guidance raised from $1B before 2030 to well above $2B in 2027. A base case with a modest AI business implies 15% annual growth through 2030; if photonics, power and robotics reach a third of revenue, 30-50%. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Navitas is a one-customer concentration story facing heavy competition from tier-one suppliers. Its GaN portfolio winning Nvidia adoption played out, but STMicroelectronics and Infineon also supply Nvidia and are strong in GaN and SiC. GaN output may quadruple by 2030, yet SiC prices were hammered by Chinese capacity, unresolved, so revenue and margins could diverge sharply. Power and thermal efficiency are better played across these names than through Navitas alone. x.com 

Robotics component suppliers get paid on every robot no matter which maker wins, as capital floods into the sector. Robotics VC hit a record of over $16 billion in a quarter, and Goldman sees the humanoid market growing from under $2 billion to $38 billion by 2035, with the inflection around 2027-28. Nvidia supplies the compute and training platforms, Ambarella edge AI chips, Ouster lidar, Vishay Precision force sensors, and memory makers the memory every robot needs. x.com  x.com 

STMicroelectronics, onsemi, Texas Instruments and Allegro MicroSystems benefit as AI data center server ramps drive analog demand, offsetting part of continued auto weakness, per an interesting Mizuho note. Mizuho says analog lead times are rising toward 40-42+ weeks with price hikes expected around June and July, and it raised targets on STMicro, onsemi and TI. Per @sean_________ quoting Mizuho, TI plans a second price increase this year, while STMicro and Allegro raised prices about 10%. x.com 

indie Semiconductor is one of the best and least-discussed ways to invest in humanoid robots, because its automotive-proven chips give it a head start. Robots need the multi-camera processing, low power and reliability cars need, and some of the biggest humanoid makers already use indie's products. With the FCC blocking new foreign-built robots, its auto-qualified parts from Swiss and Canadian factories suit Western makers. A $7.4B auto backlog leaves robotics unvalued. x.com 

AI bottleneck semiconductor stocks look to have gotten ahead of themselves, with roughly a hundred near-vertical charts where downside now seems to outweigh upside. They are semis and highly cyclical, and many smaller caps may end up trading like meme stocks. A substantial shakeout would offer a better entry. AI, robotics and energy still have years of growth ahead, but chasing these names now is not advisable. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

NXP Semiconductors, a leader in analog, automotive and industrial chips, is a core beneficiary of auto electrification, ADAS and edge compute as analog chips tend to lead in the late stages of the semiconductor cycle. Analog chips bridge the physical world and silicon in every EV, robot and power system, and rarely get replaced once designed in. NXP just printed its first power earnings gap in a while on 3x volume out of a clean two-year base, a sign of institutional accumulation. x.com 

Synaptics stands to benefit as AI moves out of data centers into physical devices, a read-through from Micron's results. Micron said L2+ vehicles carry 5x the memory and storage of average cars and humanoid robots carry 10x that of L2+ vehicles. Physical AI needs local compute, sensing, connectivity and low-power inference, which is Synaptics' lane. x.com