AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Strategy is drawing significant dip buyers as it retests what looks like a generational support level. Morning 30-minute volume was larger than on earnings, and the recent sweep produced the largest daily dollar buy volume of the sequence, which could finally supply momentum. Prior resistance and the volume point of control from the December-January range, where the accumulation began, sit just above, and very short-term expansion off last week's close may or may not follow. x.com
Seller pressure on Strategy shares has completely faded, bringing a reversal closer. The Cryptic Bottom Index is moving into its yellow region; every previous green alert marked an area where shares eventually bottomed and reversed higher. Buyer pressure has yet to return. An expansion toward $700-plus is one potential higher-timeframe scenario. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com
Strategy missing EPS by 1,000% is not bullish, and a lower low looks like the natural next direction. Support sits at $68, then the 200-month moving average at $50. x.com
Strategy is early below 1.5x its bitcoin net asset value, and the crowded short-Strategy, long-bitcoin trade is about to blow up, setting off short covering. Upcoming catalysts include STRC trading back at par, an Iran resolution with no rate hikes, and a momentum rotation into crypto after its underperformance relative to overpriced and crowded AI and software stocks. x.com
If Saylor lost the private keys to Strategy's holdings, about 4% of bitcoin's supply would vanish, which would be bullish for bitcoin even as it devastated Strategy shareholders. x.com
Strategy sold some bitcoin after saying it never would, making it the biggest scam company ever. Director Jarrod Patten then sold 22,300 shares in the open market at an average $152.60. x.com x.com
Strategy's capital allocation raises red flags. Of $290.6M raised by selling shares, $250M went to its USD reserve and only $28.9M to STRC buybacks, which looks like money set aside to day trade Bitcoin and raises questions of misappropriation. Strategy also sold 1,638 BTC to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. Its CEO dismissing Bitcoin's price and the cost-basis metric as not mattering, beyond each shareholder owning some sats, is a poor message for shareholders. x.com x.com
Strategy is a bitcoin beta trade stacked on an mNAV premium, and both are deflating at once, so leverage is cutting both ways in its 80% drop from all-time highs. Turning bleak into done needs a weekly base with a higher low and a premium to NAV that stops compressing; until then the drawdown may be only a pause inside the downtrend. x.com
Strategy's premium is the whole engine of its model, and it is compressing in real time. Per @AdamBLiv, Strategy added about 53,000 bitcoin in three weeks, lifting its stack 7%, while its shares rose only 0.7%. x.com
