The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Strategy will run hard once bitcoin confirms its reversal, and since its crash front-ran bitcoin's correction, it may recover first. Reclaiming $150, where the wedge breakout and the 200-week moving average sit, as support would confirm the reversal. Buying it is a bet on the cult-like devotion to Michael Saylor and bitcoin more than on Strategy's questionable approach. x.comÂ
Strategy is a bitcoin beta trade stacked on an mNAV premium, and both are deflating at once, so leverage is cutting both ways in its 80% drop from all-time highs. Turning bleak into done needs a weekly base with a higher low and a premium to NAV that stops compressing; until then the drawdown may be only a pause inside the downtrend. x.comÂ
Strategy is one of five popular stocks not worth buying right now. x.comÂ
Seller pressure on Strategy shares has completely faded, bringing a reversal closer. The Cryptic Bottom Index is moving into its yellow region; every previous green alert marked an area where shares eventually bottomed and reversed higher. Buyer pressure has yet to return. An expansion toward $700-plus is one potential higher-timeframe scenario. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The loss of forced ETF buying increases the likelihood Strategy will trade at a discount to the value of its bitcoin holdings. WatcherGuru reports MSCI plans to remove Strategy from its indexes. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's premium is the whole engine of its model, and it is compressing in real time. Per @AdamBLiv, Strategy added about 53,000 bitcoin in three weeks, lifting its stack 7%, while its shares rose only 0.7%. x.comÂ
Strategy is drawing significant dip buyers as it retests what looks like a generational support level. Morning 30-minute volume was larger than on earnings, and the recent sweep produced the largest daily dollar buy volume of the sequence, which could finally supply momentum. Prior resistance and the volume point of control from the December-January range, where the accumulation began, sit just above, and very short-term expansion off last week's close may or may not follow. x.comÂ
Strategy's share price is a bet on the next buyer, not on anything that produces cash. It filed a $20.8B net loss for the first half of 2026, an accounting fact about bitcoin's price, yet the stock rose this month. Neither produces a dollar, so investors are pricing a chain of strangers. x.comÂ
Strategy sold some bitcoin after saying it never would, making it the biggest scam company ever. Director Jarrod Patten then sold 22,300 shares in the open market at an average $152.60. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's preferred instruments can trade at a discount and still recover over time, without needing to return to par, because Michael Saylor built the company to weather this kind of volatility. Oil once fell to -$30 a barrel and recovered, and Exxon, Chevron and Shell came through unscathed. x.comÂ
Falling STRC prices raise its effective yield, increasing Strategy's dividend burden and tying the instrument to occasional Bitcoin sales despite its large holdings. Saylor is promoting STRC's 12% yield paid twice a month, and the higher it is, the faster Strategy sells Bitcoin. Replying to @Blockcastcc's report of Peter Schiff's warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $20,000, Strategy should sell everything and repay: preferred holders can be paid, but common holders would be wiped out. x.com … Show more