CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Cerebras' COO selling all his sellable Class A shares is not a good look for shareholders, even though the sale was scheduled under a plan. He still holds Class B shares he cannot sell during the lockup, which runs until November; @athuinvests notes much of the sale was old $0.98 options and leftover vested stock, making selling after the lockup the real test. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras's core inference-speed pitch took a hit as OpenAI's new ultrafast model runs on Nvidia, not Cerebras. The biggest customer in the world picked Nvidia for exactly the speed Cerebras sells. The same week, its COO sold $78 million of stock and now holds zero shares, so the customer it built for is passing while the best-informed insider exits. x.comÂ
Cerebras is a name to stay far away from. It tanked after OpenAI said its new chip with Broadcom outperforms Nvidia's, underlining how heavily Cerebras is tied to OpenAI, a dependence that hurt Oracle. It is also a recent IPO, a good share of its stock is owned by OpenAI insiders, and it is insanely volatile. x.comÂ
Cerebras is difficult for retail investors to understand, and management has not done a great job explaining its business since going public. It deserves more attention as the most direct AI IPO of 2026, but going long Cerebras is hard to justify when Nvidia can be owned instead. x.comÂ
Cerebras and its customers likely accounted for many of the chip limitations alleged in the short report, so the report may be wrong. This is a suspicion without specific insight. Short interest rose 40.7% into the report to 19.86 million shares, or 8.4% of float. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras is an unattractive stock to hold now, even though ultrafast speed is a feature companies would happily pay for. Controversy over OpenAI's ultrafast running on Nvidia chips, the share lockup expiration and insider selling outweigh the chance that OpenAI's next 6.1 Sol ultrafast actually runs on Cerebras chips. x.comÂ
Cerebras is likely heading lower after terrible earnings, with share unlocks about to add supply. Its valuation was so stretched that it couldn't afford a miss, and it apparently missed; a lot of hope was already built into the price. It could trade around $150 soon. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras is now worth buying after its shares fell into the previously stated $60-$120 buying range. The earlier concern was an out-of-control valuation and providing liquidity to insiders at much higher prices; the shares shown are about $117. x.comÂ
Cerebras has fallen more than 50% from its IPO highs, like every other hot deal, and its investor event did not deliver the news longs wanted. FOMO buying into the IPO proved deadly. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras' 9% rebound on Sam Altman's post is a relief bounce into more supply; the post held no new information. OpenAI, a big customer calming things down, supplied about 32% of last quarter's revenue. Altman left standing SemiAnalysis's report that GPT-6.1 Sol's Ultrafast tier runs on Nvidia GPUs. Up to 19.4M lockup shares unlock Oct 14 and again Oct 28. OpenAI exercising its 1.25GW option, or Cerebras confirming Ultrafast-class workloads on its own hardware, would change the view. x.comÂ
Cerebras looks attractive because the short report's two-year wafer-life thesis rests on unvalidated reliability assumptions, not representative failure data. Energy per useful token, lower warranty utilization and ordinary repair accounting also undercut its financial conclusions. OpenAI has integrated Cerebras into production; AMD and AWS have announced integrations, while Oracle plans 2027 availability for ultra-fast inference, adding commercial validation despite the report. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras is wildly overvalued after opening its debut up 102%, at about 157.8x sales. FY25 revenue was $510M against 215.23M shares outstanding, and its $150M net income was not related to its core business. Late buyers risk becoming bag holders. x.com x.comÂ
