Zcash is showing weakness, and its super-illiquid spot book means profit-taking by spot holders can drive a sharply convex move to the downside. Broader risk appetite also appears to be weakening. x.com
degentrading
Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO
Zcash could perform strongly if Bitcoin has made a local bottom, as relief rallies should favor tokens where attention has concentrated. ZEC is one of the two big-cap tokens, with HYPE, that captured most of the market's attention, and its roller-coaster bout of fear drove many holders to sell, resetting positioning. Bitcoin has historically had a positive month after a bloody June, and last week's peak fear around Strategy and STRC points to a local bottom. x.com
Zcash is entering a profit-taking zone after moving above key levels into a stretched area. Per Alphractal, NUPL is at 0.53, showing holders sit on strong unrealized profits, while whales holding 100K-1M ZEC are starting to sell. Those who bought much lower should consider taking some profits here. x.com
Low liquidity could cause sharp downside wicks in altcoins over the coming days. Uniswap at $3-6 and Zcash near $800 are levels of interest for bids. Trader_XO sees Zcash near $800, a call that holds here too; the level is expected before year-end. x.com x.com x.com
ZEC gains a continuous create-redeem mechanism for the first time as Grayscale's Zcash trust converts to a spot ETF on NYSE. ZEC is back in the zone that capped previous cycles: $22 to $900 in 2017, $18 to $372 in 2021, and $16 to $850 now. Holding $900 keeps the stance long and aggressive; losing it brings $590-600 into view. Whether the broader market retraces in September is the bigger question, but the long-term position is comfortable either way. x.com
Zcash's price is running ahead of its usage, so this rally is not one to buy yet. ZEC is becoming the privacy coin Wall Street can buy, as Grayscale works to turn its trust holding 2.3% of supply into an NYSE-listed ETF, and Flexa and CrossPay add spending options. But after a 68% weekly jump to about $14B, nearly twice Monero, the ETF is not live, the 200K ZEC contribution has not happened and fees were about $2K in a day. A live ETF, real inflows and a held pullback would change the view. … Show more
Zcash's store-of-value case falls apart if an AI model like Opus 4.8 can one-shot a critical bug in it, which makes parking wealth there as an inflation hedge hard to trust. The tradeoff Zcash makes leaves it uninvestable for almost every institution. x.com x.com
Zcash's leverage reset to open-interest range lows near 1.1 million ZEC could support a quick move to new highs if momentum returns. Holding its 50-day moving average is a positive first signal, but a sustained reclaim of the blue trendline near $1,330 is the second signal needed for that strong setup. x.com
Zcash's trust as a currency is broken after a flaw allowing counterfeit tokens was exposed, and it could be sold to zero. Per @BullTheoryio, researcher Taylor Hornby used Claude Opus to build a working proof of concept that minted fake ZEC through a bug hidden in the Orchard privacy pool since 2022. It was patched June 2, but Zcash's privacy design makes it impossible to know whether fake ZEC was minted before the fix. ZEC fell over 50% in a day, and any rebound should crash again. x.com x.com … Show more
Zcash is a higher-risk store of value because bugs in its proof system have made undetectable counterfeiting possible. Those bugs have been exploited twice, and nobody can verify whether counterfeit ZEC was created. Litecoin's MWEB privacy layer had a validation bug exploited to mint 85,000 counterfeit LTC, showing privacy-focused monetary systems can introduce real security and supply risks. Their privacy can still make them useful for moving funds quickly and privately. x.com
Zcash is being bought heavily by institutions, and $5,000-10,000 per ZEC could come fast at this pace. It just broke above $1,400, about 70 times its 2024 low near $20, after a selloff to $250 roughly six months ago. x.com x.com
Zcash is hot because shills realized a year ago it has the perfect setup for them to size in, control the narrative and pump it. That setup combines a sweet-spot market cap, centralized-exchange integrations, a long dormant history and a simple 'bitcoin but private' thesis. x.com