Prepared Remarks
Equity Investor, Macro Commentary
Dycom looks compelling because its infrastructure backlog and operating execution position it to benefit from AI's demand for power, fiber, and data centers. Its backlog has grown to $12.2 billion from $8 billion a year ago, Building Systems EBITDA margins exceed 20%, and Power Solutions is running 30% ahead of acquisition expectations. The long-term growth opportunity may be underappreciated as the market focuses on near-term margin pressure. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Procore Technologies is a short because it faces competition from Autodesk, is exposed to construction, trades at an expensive multiple and is well loved. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Constellation Software has no way to benefit from AI and little organic growth, so 21x GAAP EBIT looks fair, with perhaps a downside skew if churn rises across its portfolio in the next five years. The market's negative reaction is rational. Its small vertical software businesses were run financially rather than for product, many still on-prem, with no central AI strategy as software gets cheaper to build. Organic growth was 2% in constant currency; inorganic growth is fundamentally different. … Show more
Cardinal Infrastructure Group looks cheap against its expected earnings, at 9x next year's estimate versus the roughly 19x engineering and construction firms usually get. At 19x next year's $3.25 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value is about $54-69, leaving the $30.60 price 44% below the low end. The case leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 266% above trailing, and is a valuation screen only, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Construction Partners is expensive against its earnings, at 36x trailing and 24x next year's versus the 19x engineering and construction firms usually get. Fair value is $64.96-82.67, or 19x next year's $3.88 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the stock 13% above the top of that range. The view leans on a forecast 49% above trailing earnings and rests on valuation levels only, without fundamental work. x.comÂ
Quanta Services looks expensive against its earnings at $685.78. It trades at 35x earnings while engineering and construction firms usually get 19x. Fair value runs $328.40 to $417.97, about 19x next year's $19.64 a share, putting the stock 64% above the high end. This is a valuation read only, based on reported earnings and estimates. x.comÂ
Oracle, down 50% from its $340 high while other hyperscalers are down about 15%, just had every fear behind the drop addressed in one earnings call. 90% of data center capacity is already funded, margins are guided to 32% versus 27-28% expected, and it added $30B of new business in 90 days without extra funding. Organic revenue and earnings both grew 20%+ for the first time in 15 years, 2027 revenue guidance rose to $90B, and the pipeline tops $530B. It can pass $200 fast. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Mayville Engineering looks to be re-rating on growing data center exposure, helped by a low share count and low multiple. Per Grok, data center and critical power brought about $50M of new project awards in Q1 alone, more than all of H2 2025, and Mayville acquired Accu-Fab for more data center exposure and raised about $87M in May 2026 to pay down debt and fund growth. Revenue is nothing great, and the stock still needs a big account to discover it. x.comÂ
Applied Digital is set to benefit as hyperscaler capex commitments jumped from about $400 billion to nearly $700 billion in 90 days. It holds about $16 billion in contracted lease revenue, has three sites in exclusivity and expects new leases soon. Q3 revenue rose 139% to $126.6 million, crushing the $75.5 million consensus. CoreWeave upgraded its lease terms, which should lower refinancing costs, and management bonuses are tied to a goal of $1 billion in annual profit. x.comÂ