GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Quanta Services looks expensive against its earnings at $685.78. It trades at 35x earnings while engineering and construction firms usually get 19x. Fair value runs $328.40 to $417.97, about 19x next year's $19.64 a share, putting the stock 64% above the high end. This is a valuation read only, based on reported earnings and estimates. x.com
Quanta Services owns the real chokepoint in the AI power buildout: the skilled labor that installs grid equipment. Grid interconnect lead times have stretched to 4–7 years, and Quanta fields the largest US craft workforce for high-voltage work, which cannot be built within a four-year apprenticeship cycle. It wires substations from gas turbines to data-center fences. At about 44x forward EPS of $16.45, the multiple compounds with a backlog locked through the decade. x.com
Comfort Systems already trades at about 22x what looks like its peak earnings. With orders around $3.5B, even if quarterly revenue eventually runs at $5B with 20% EBITDA margins, EPS would be about $85. x.com
Procore Technologies looks cheap at 18x adjusted earnings and 3.5x revenue for what is probably a top-five private equity software target. Data center construction builds a mechanical case for revenue acceleration that starts flowing through in the next 12 months. x.com x.com
Quanta Services' wide moat, huge backlog and free cash flow make it an appealing portfolio holding. Its Q3 earnings materials report record backlog of $63.7 billion and free cash flow of $1.20 billion, with 37.1% organic revenue growth and higher full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. x.com
