Domino's faces limited growth despite a great product. Pizza consumption per capita and store penetration are already high, competition is rising through DoorDash and Uber Eats, and the stock starts from a high multiple. x.comÂ
Prepared Remarks
Equity Investor, Macro Commentary
Domino's faces pressure across the restaurant sector ahead of its earnings report. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash's clear accumulation makes its continued selloff look unjustified. The stock is still falling despite that buying. x.comÂ
Domino's cannot stay this cheap for long, trading at 17 times earnings, a decade-low valuation, while its store count, earnings per share and sales all grow at once. Something has to give. x.comÂ
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.comÂ
Domino's Pizza is no opportunity despite its lowest P/E in over a decade, because its stock has followed the quality of its food. Per @dividendology, the stock is down 35% over five years after ranking among the market's best performers from 2005 to 2021. x.comÂ
Domino's Pizza looks attractive after a roughly 47% drawdown, trading at about 16.5x forward earnings. x.comÂ
Domino's Pizza will be hurt by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. The stock fell 10% in a day after the company lowered its expectations for sales and operating income, leaving it 42% below its highs. x.comÂ
DoorDash is building the local infrastructure layer of a three-sided marketplace for all of local commerce, so heavy investment is expected and does not break the thesis. It is an incredible growth business run by excellent operators with an unlimited addressable market. Selling on worries about competitive intensity, earnings quality or the direction of the numbers misreads that. x.com x.comÂ
Domino's Pizza is a global logistics, software and franchise platform whose economics improve as the network grows. Franchisees fund expansion while Domino's collects high-margin royalties, and scale brings data, ad efficiency and buying power; it has beaten Alphabet over 20 years. As a rough thought exercise, 10% annual growth from about $17 EPS implies over $100 in 20 years, and at 15-25x a business potentially worth about $2,000 a share. Franchisee economics and aggregators are risks. x.com … Show more
Uber and DoorDash run commodity businesses that depend on governments able to spoil them, leaving much risk and little upside. Per @OnlyInBOS, Massachusetts now guarantees Uber and Lyft drivers at least $34.48 an hour plus benefits under a $175M settlement, and per @Investor_NICK_, Minneapolis's city council is proposing an emergency meeting to ban DoorDash drone delivery to protect drivers' income. x.com x.comÂ