PayPal's growth has stalled and it faces too much fintech competition. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.com 

Emerging markets look good for a short-term long because the US dollar is unlikely to break out without a catalyst. In-line PCE pulled down 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the dollar index sits at a major resistance level, the May 2025 high. USDJPY is at 162, a critical level for the Bank of Japan to defend, and currencies move much more slowly than bonds. x.com 

PayPay is not worth chasing at its $11.8B IPO valuation: by US standards it is normally valued, not a screaming buy. The Japanese payments, investing and banking super app earned about $248M on FY2025 revenue of about $1.9B, up 26%, with near-zero stock compensation, at roughly 44x earnings and 5.8x sales. IPO hype and a low float may lift it, but majority owner SoftBank's lockup expires in September 2026, an ATM-like overhang. Better mispriced choices exist, such as Reddit. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar's strength against the yen is a trend, as the Bank of Japan neither wants nor dares to reveal its hand. It is avoiding a clear 160 line and instead trying hit-and-run moves against yen shorts, and it is unclear whether it will actually strike. There is little basis for a sustained yen rally; even if it intervenes, its realistic approach is to fight while retreating, unless Fed policy clearly pivots, and Fed chair Warsh does not seem to want to give markets a clear signal. x.com  … Show more

The yen is strengthening sharply toward ¥153-154 as the Bank of Japan hikes rates and intervenes, starting to unwind the global carry trade funded by cheap yen. That is not a normal FX move but a systemic margin call on every leveraged position funded in yen, with the BOJ now playing its own game rather than following the Fed. x.com 

Japanese stocks face more selling if the Bank of Japan steps in to support the yen, because a stronger yen hurts the country's exporters. Topix fell 1.3% today on those worries. The last time this happened, Korea's KOSPI hit its eighth circuit breaker of 2026 and the Nikkei lost over 2,600 points. The yen is the key thing to watch. x.com 

PayPal's beat-and-raise quarter supports the bull case. Per @DeItaone, Q2 EPS was $1.38 versus $1.28 expected, revenue $8.68B versus $8.47B and payment volume $486.5B versus $468.5B, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to about $5.38. PayPal plans $6B of buybacks this year and at least $1.5B of cost savings over 2-3 years, though it expects a low-single-digit decline in Q3 adjusted EPS. x.com 

Digital Garage is unlikely to become a Pasona-style situation because Resona, its largest holder, wants the payments business to grow. Current management is unlikely to deliver a large outright capital return, which Resona also does not want for tax reasons; @absreturnchaser sees little reason for a further re-rating on that basis. x.com 

dLocal is an overlooked picks-and-shovels play on emerging-market digital payments, combining real growth, real profitability and a huge runway outside the US. In the fourth quarter, payment volume grew 70%, revenue 65%, gross profit 38% and net income 87%. Full-year 2025 revenue crossed $1B for the first time, and adjusted free cash flow rose 110%. x.com 

The yen is strengthening on a carry-trade unwind as markets price in a 50-basis-point BOJ hike. @VKMacro notes USD/JPY fell below 157 and held, something intervention could not achieve. Kevin Warsh's speech was an art-of-the-deal sleight of hand that fooled markets into seeing a hawkish Fed. Yen calls are working because volatility was too low for the coiled spring of carry leverage. x.com  x.com