Cybersecurity is a clear secondary beneficiary of AI that has been lumped into the software selloff, and Palo Alto Networks is one of the safe bets. It trades at 9x NTM sales for about 23% growth, with a Rule of 40 score above 60 and its CEO buying shares, which is hard to ignore. CrowdStrike and Zscaler are the other safe bets. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks looks set for a near-term move to $400-$410 after its CEO bought $10M of shares. The setup resembles Dell's, and cybersecurity looks attractive here. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks is the most overvalued cybersecurity stock by a mile, at about 25x forward revenue while growing only 15% organically. Anything above 10x revenue is hard to justify, let alone 20x. Worse, the "Mythos moment" that sent cyber valuations vertical has not yet shown up in its results. x.com  x.com 

Zscaler likely needs to broaden its product scope, or Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike will dominate security through organic growth and acquisitions. Palo Alto grows about 14% organically and mid-20s including acquisitions and, with 4x Zscaler's revenue, commands 10x EV/sales; CrowdStrike, at 2x Zscaler's revenue, gets the same multiple. Scale is being rewarded. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks has strong secular tailwinds as AI adoption drives platform market-share gains, so the winner should be left to run. Morgan Stanley named it a sector top pick, raised its target to $410 from $394 with an Overweight rating, and cited underestimated enterprise spending consolidation. The stock trades near 52-week highs. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks at 21x forward sales is too expensive for 17% pro-forma growth, despite BTIG's view that it is worth more than the current price. x.com 

Cybersecurity looks set to boom over the next few years as AI capabilities like Mythos keep advancing. Investors have moved from treating all software as bad to favoring companies that help, work with or combat AI agents. By their charts over the past month, Fortinet, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks look like the group's big three, and Fortinet held up regardless of CrowdStrike's and Palo Alto's results. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks wants every AI agent's credentials routed through it, and whoever brokers the keys sits inline on every action a CISO wants to control. It is the only firewall vendor that also owns a top privileged-access stack. Last quarter revenue grew 34% at a 70% gross margin, with $4.11 billion of free cash flow and net cash. The price is steep at 81.2x forward earnings and 28.2x sales, leaving no cushion if cloud platforms credential agents natively. x.com 

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks need 50%-plus growth to deliver even a 10% IRR over a realistic horizon, but almost no conceivable case gets them there. They feel as dumb as Zoom and Peloton in 2021. Even if revenue doubles over four to five years, Palo Alto would still trade at 10x revenue and CrowdStrike at 20x, leaving little prospect of a real IRR; Palo Alto is growing in the teens today. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Palo Alto Networks benefits from AI increasing software exploits, a basic insight that made it an easy cybersecurity pick. Its CEO also comes across well on podcasts. x.com