Palo Alto Networks looks set for a near-term move to $400-$410 after its CEO bought $10M of shares. The setup resembles Dell's, and cybersecurity looks attractive here. x.comÂ
Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Palo Alto Networks has strong secular tailwinds as AI adoption drives platform market-share gains, so the winner should be left to run. Morgan Stanley named it a sector top pick, raised its target to $410 from $394 with an Overweight rating, and cited underestimated enterprise spending consolidation. The stock trades near 52-week highs. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is a clear secondary beneficiary of AI that has been lumped into the software selloff, and Palo Alto Networks is one of the safe bets. It trades at 9x NTM sales for about 23% growth, with a Rule of 40 score above 60 and its CEO buying shares, which is hard to ignore. CrowdStrike and Zscaler are the other safe bets. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks is an expensive stock for the profit growth it will deliver over the next couple of years, despite another strong quarter and a promising annual guide. x.com x.comÂ
The selloff in Palo Alto Networks and cybersecurity is way overdone, as the CEO's personal $10M share purchase and the company's new $1B buyback both signal. x.comÂ
Tenable looks cheap among cybersecurity software names, trading at a lower P/E than Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, a lower forward P/E than Fortinet, and one of the group's lowest PEG ratios. Its chart shows a double breakout from a triangle and range highs, with low cycles and confirming on-balance volume. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks at 21x forward sales is too expensive for 17% pro-forma growth, despite BTIG's view that it is worth more than the current price. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks stands to gain because Mythos has changed how companies budget for security, from a nice-to-have to a probable buy-it-now rush to sign with category leaders. The CEO has been pitching its Next Gen Security product hard, with margin expansion hoped for. That demand may show up in its guidance at today's earnings. The market is rewarding category leaders doing even better, such as ServiceNow and Cloudflare. Options imply a 10.5% move, about 21% for the 2x PALU fund. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks benefits from AI increasing software exploits, a basic insight that made it an easy cybersecurity pick. Its CEO also comes across well on podcasts. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks' valuation makes little sense: FY2027 guidance of $4.19 EPS at the high end implies only 9.7% growth, yet the stock trades at 85x FY2027 EPS, an 8.7x PEG ratio. By contrast, Credo guides revenue up at least 85%, implying 85% EPS growth at 28x, a 0.33x PEG, though connectivity and cybersecurity aren't directly comparable. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks wants every AI agent's credentials routed through it, and whoever brokers the keys sits inline on every action a CISO wants to control. It is the only firewall vendor that also owns a top privileged-access stack. Last quarter revenue grew 34% at a 70% gross margin, with $4.11 billion of free cash flow and net cash. The price is steep at 81.2x forward earnings and 28.2x sales, leaving no cushion if cloud platforms credential agents natively. x.comÂ