Brad Freeman
Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd
Palo Alto Networks' valuation makes little sense: FY2027 guidance of $4.19 EPS at the high end implies only 9.7% growth, yet the stock trades at 85x FY2027 EPS, an 8.7x PEG ratio. By contrast, Credo guides revenue up at least 85%, implying 85% EPS growth at 28x, a 0.33x PEG, though connectivity and cybersecurity aren't directly comparable. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks at 21x forward sales is too expensive for 17% pro-forma growth, despite BTIG's view that it is worth more than the current price. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks looks set for a near-term move to $400-$410 after its CEO bought $10M of shares. The setup resembles Dell's, and cybersecurity looks attractive here. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks is too expensive at 21x sales and 79x forward earnings for a company expected to grow only about 20% over the next few years. Cybersecurity matters more as AI advances, but even a good company has to be bought at the right price, which is why the stock fell even after a big earnings beat. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks is wildly overvalued, with a market cap above $250B on $3B of revenue and $8.1B of ARR while still reporting losses. That is like paying $300k for a lemonade stand with zero costs and $10k of yearly sales, before even counting stock-based compensation. x.comÂ
Cybersecurity is a clear secondary beneficiary of AI that has been lumped into the software selloff, and Palo Alto Networks is one of the safe bets. It trades at 9x NTM sales for about 23% growth, with a Rule of 40 score above 60 and its CEO buying shares, which is hard to ignore. CrowdStrike and Zscaler are the other safe bets. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks looks stretched, with valuation ratios and growth rates resembling its 2021 levels, and the forward multiple is still 22x. @investing_bear makes the same case for CrowdStrike, whose trailing price-to-sales is 43.5 on 26% revenue growth, versus 38.4 at end-2021 on 63% growth. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks looks overextended at 100x EPS for a company growing at most 20%, after running from 308 to 389. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks has strong secular tailwinds as AI adoption drives platform market-share gains, so the winner should be left to run. Morgan Stanley named it a sector top pick, raised its target to $410 from $394 with an Overweight rating, and cited underestimated enterprise spending consolidation. The stock trades near 52-week highs. x.comÂ
Palo Alto Networks is a great business with the best management team, but after an insane run its valuation leaves better risk-reward elsewhere. It trades at 24x sales, 68x EBITDA and 90x earnings even on adjusted EPS that adds back stock compensation. Upgrades from Wells Fargo and BNP look like the sell side chasing performance. Meta, for example, could earn $70 or more per share longer term and offers better risk-reward even at $600. x.comÂ