Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Atomera has massive upside if a deal is brewing: it is working with two gate-all-around chipmakers and is close to a milestone that would precede a new license, per its CEO's post responding to the Applied Materials-Intel joint venture. The stock should rise once a production deal lands, which seems likely though timing is unknown, and this market may not favor speculative bets. x.com x.comÂ
Atomera's RF-SOI commercialization looks very likely, with roughly 70% odds of a deal by end of Q1 next year. The CEO says customer silicon matched the simulations that drew interest, so MST performance is no longer in question; what remains is supply chain, implying talks with wafer maker Soitec, which aims to advance RF-SOI with Atomera. Atomera works with nearly all RF-SOI foundry capacity: GlobalFoundries, UMC and Tower. It is pre-revenue but offers phenomenal risk-reward at $330m. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Atomera had a breakthrough this year, proving its MST film can be integrated into gate-all-around nanosheet transistors to reduce leakage and improve drive current. Gate-all-around is the architecture used at 3nm and 2nm nodes, in chips such as Nvidia's Rubin and AMD's Helios. x.com x.comÂ
ASM International benefits as each new leading-edge node adds more atomic layer deposition steps per wafer, its core strength. Gate-all-around transistors need ultra-thin, even films on every surface of stacked nanosheets, and the next phase depends more on transistor architecture and materials than on EUV, raising deposition's value. With TSMC's 2nm in volume, Intel's 18A its first GAA node and 1.4nm pilots due in late 2026, growth comes from process intensity as much as wafer volume. x.comÂ
Atomera's Synopsys collaboration is big news but a no-revenue R&D partnership, and massive dilution makes the stock unattractive. A vote in two to three weeks would raise the share count from 45M to 95M. People may still buy into the FOMO around the news anyway. x.comÂ
Applied Materials can be bought here as a semiconductor and optics play, with all kinds of upgrades this year and a perfect chart pointing to a $400 target. x.comÂ
The semiconductor build-out is still widening as AI spending rotates between constraints: memory, power, compute and now capital itself. Futurum's new estimate puts cumulative AI capex at $12.7 trillion, with chips alone near $5 trillion by decade end. Applied Materials revenue rose 15% sequentially to a record $9.1B, with spending growing slower than revenue; front-end equipment is an early read on fab capacity. x.com x.comÂ
Intel is becoming a national AI infrastructure crown jewel, and $1T is only a start if it executes. Apple's preliminary deal to build chips on 18A-P, Google's reported 3M+ TPU orders through 2028 and its role as primary foundry for Elon Musk's TerraFab support that, alongside government and Nvidia stakes. EMIB-T packaging is its trump card: it can package chiplets built on anyone's silicon, including TSMC's, easing CoWoS constraints. If 18A misses, the foundry re-rating would take longer. x.com … Show more
Intel has shifted from a binary bet to a compounder, with Apple's preliminary deal for Intel to make its chips confirming the foundry customers are there as CPU demand explodes. A valuation model puts Intel at $1.2T, and it could reach $1-2T. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel has finally committed to a high-volume ramp of its 14A process in 2028, with 14A risk production for internal products on track for the second half of 2027. Per @BenBajarin's excerpt of the call, management cited growing customer engagement and rising confidence that 14A will be highly competitive on performance, power, density, cost and schedule. x.comÂ
Intel is going to land NVIDIA as a foundry customer and grow into a giant fab business. x.comÂ
Intel is scaling its foundry turnaround with 18A in high-volume production and yields ahead of plan. Q2 revenue rose 25% to $16.1B, with Panther Lake on 18A. 14A risk production is set for the second half of 2027 and high-volume ramps for 2028, and two prospective 14A customers will decide between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. Capex tops $20B this year and rises sharply in 2027. Nvidia invested $5B and is co-developing custom x86 CPUs; the US government holds 9.9%. x.comÂ
