Affirm looks a bit expensive here, with fair value around $70 to $80, even though buy now, pay later should keep taking share from traditional credit cards. BNPL limits borrowing to when it is needed and cuts off borrowers who do not repay, lowering risk for both user and lender, unlike credit cards with large limits. Affirm is growing over 35%, and its balance account pays over 3% interest through a linked debit card that can also use BNPL. x.com 

Pagaya is one of the few already-profitable vertical AI applications, and industry-embedded software should gain value even as AI eats generic SaaS. It is fintech infrastructure, not a lender: AI credit decisions lift approvals for bank, auto and POS lending partners, while its ABS and forward-flow funding absorbs the loans. Its edge is data scale and deep credit-workflow embedding, not its static models. Risks include the credit cycle, ABS liquidity, regulation and partner concentration. x.com  … Show more

Affirm and Klarna can take a large share of the credit card market as consumers turn away from predatory cards. Credit cards are over $15 trillion, and buy now, pay later should capture at least 20% of that within 10 years. x.com 

Carvana's and Credit Acceptance's losses from rising auto-loan delinquencies will take time to surface, because lenders let borrowers miss payments and extend the loans, an extend-and-pretend approach. This answers @lifelong72 asking whether the companies will eat the losses. x.com 

Pagaya's 8.875% 2030 senior notes are the best self-help credit among the high-yield bonds reviewed, still priced far outside normal B risk at about 71.5 despite real liability improvements. Pagaya refinanced a costlier term loan, cutting about $40M a year of cash interest, and repriced its revolver. 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $371M, with $410-460M guided for 2026, and ABS access held up. The bond needs genuine rerating, and Pagaya stays tied to consumer-credit and securitization risk. … Show more

Affirm is a bottom-fishing opportunity now that it has turned from years of losses to consistent profitability. Q2 fiscal 2026 EPS of $0.37 beat estimates, revenue rose 29.6% and GMV 36.6%, and trailing net income turned positive. Its Amazon partnership runs through 2031, Lowe's has joined, and BNPL demand should rebound as rates improve. At about 35x forward earnings and a PEG of 0.72, the stock is reasonably valued or even undervalued for its growth. x.com 

SoFi, Klarna, Inter & Co and MercadoLibre are being punished for expanding lending, which is exactly what they need to do to stress-test credit models, gain market share and capture untapped revenue. The temporary losses, margin dips and delinquency creep are necessary experimentation, not failure; algorithmic selling and stop-loss cascades are crushing the shares while fundamentals strengthen for multi-year growth. Inter at 9x earnings is a screaming value anomaly. Patience wins. x.com 

Credit Acceptance faces pressure because subprime car buyers are running out of money. Its EPS growth has come largely from buybacks, with operating cash flow flat over five years, per another investor's review, and lending businesses like this are very hard to analyze. x.com 

Affirm Holdings has a catalyst in its May 12 Investor Forum, where management is expected to set a medium-term framework covering UK expansion, rent and B2B verticals and the Affirm Card. Card GMV is up 159% with 3.7 million active holders, and Affirm is reportedly pursuing a banking license. Its Amazon partnership runs through 2031, and it landed Costco and a Stripe AI Shopping Token integration in the same week. The weekly chart is curling; the view holds while it confirms above 52.90. x.com 

Shopify's 34% growth and 15% FCF margin give it an elite Rule of 40 score of 49, so the market will forgive its GAAP loss. That loss came from a $1.1B write-down on its stakes in Affirm, Global-e and Klaviyo, market volatility rather than business failure. Merchant Solutions grew 39% versus 21% for subscriptions, showing Shopify is really a fintech company, and Bloomberg flows show smart money buying the dip at $108. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com