Rich Peter
Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs
SoFi, Klarna, Inter & Co and MercadoLibre are being punished for expanding lending, which is exactly what they need to do to stress-test credit models, gain market share and capture untapped revenue. The temporary losses, margin dips and delinquency creep are necessary experimentation, not failure; algorithmic selling and stop-loss cascades are crushing the shares while fundamentals strengthen for multi-year growth. Inter at 9x earnings is a screaming value anomaly. Patience wins. x.comÂ
SoFi's improving credit and fee mix support its long-term earnings case. Q3 originations hit $16.9B; estimated all-in annualized personal-loan charge-offs, excluding delinquent sales, fell 80 bps YoY to 3.4%. Fee revenue hit $571M, or 42% of total. Management says current capital and organic generation can fund 2027 growth without a raise. $100 a share is aggressive on 2027 earnings; a multi-year path needs 25-40% revenue growth, wider margins and credit discipline. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SoFi and MercadoLibre are both great opportunities because the market discounts lenders far more than it should every few years, then they move very high very fast over a year or two when the tide turns. Per @oguzerkan, SoFi, MercadoLibre and peers are growing interest-bearing products that front-load expected losses while recognizing revenue gradually over time. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's fee growth and improving credit support its Q3 triple beat. Revenue was $1.39B vs $1.26B expected, EPS 18 cents vs 17, membership 17.1M, and guidance rose. Interchange fees grew 77% year on year, brokerage fees 47%; personal-loan net charge-offs fell to 2.26%. The guide assumes two more rate hikes this year; one looks plausible, not two, leaving upside. For 2027, it assumes four hikes and a couple more percentage points of tax. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.comÂ
Rising long-term yields threaten SoFi and other fintechs. The US 10-year yield is at its highest in about 30 years, and 10-year yields in Japan, Germany and the UK are also at highs, with Japan's at 2.91%, the highest since 1996. Klarna is the first casualty of this uncertainty, and it will hit SoFi and every other fintech. x.comÂ
SoFi's earnings beats and much higher 2027 outlook make its valuation at just 15x forward earnings look compelling. This is one of the most extraordinary earnings reports yet: revenue beat estimates by 9%, EPS by 6%, 2026 guidance rose, and 2027 revenue and EPS guidance came in way above estimates. x.comÂ
SoFi's cross-selling is turning growth into faster profits, making its valuation more compelling than Robinhood's despite higher margins there. Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EBITDA 70%; fee-based revenue reached 42% of sales. Management guides to $6.4B revenue and $2.24B adjusted EBITDA in 2027 without needing new capital for that plan, though future dilution is possible. Robinhood's 12.4x analyst-estimated 2027 sales is nearly four times SoFi's 3.3x on management guidance. SoFi must deliver. … Show more
MercadoLibre may not be a buy yet, since its margin-compressing investment cycle looks set to run for a while. An AI-assisted review of gross and operating margins against prior investment cycles points that way, after a first read of the risk/reward had looked like a buy. The stock is worth revisiting at the end of the year. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's low-cost deposits and expanding financial ecosystem could drive faster earnings than revenue growth in 2027, potentially making it the best growth stock to own that year. Q3 adjusted revenue rose 44% to $1.37B; management estimates $51.3B in deposits save $745M annually against warehouse funding. Management guides to $6.4B in 2027 adjusted revenue and $0.90 EPS versus $0.61 EPS for 2026. Revaluation hinges on execution and credit discipline amid slowing growth and Tech Platform weakness. … Show more
