GameStop will go lower after hitting new 52-week lows, with $14-$16 the likely floor. If Ryan Cohen doesn't inspire shareholder confidence, it could fall as low as $10, and hedge funds love shorting it. x.com
Theresa Perrin
Self-Directed Investor & Trader, Former Hospice Nurse
GameStop has not created value where it matters to shareholders: the share price has been a dog for five years. Much of that came from heavy dilution and from alienating the investor base that drove the stock to parabolic heights. The idea that Ryan Cohen creates shareholder value is revisionist history, whatever the balance-sheet gains. x.com
GameStop lacks the money for its eBay bid, and Ryan Cohen's interview suggests he is using retail investors as exit liquidity. The proposal offers $125 per eBay share, half cash and half GameStop stock, valuing eBay equity at $55.5 billion, with a TD Securities letter for up to $20 billion of financing. The interview sent GameStop shares lower. x.com
GameStop's case rests on CEO Ryan Cohen's continued insider buying, nearly $70 million this year, supporting a $30 target. The stock is up almost 20% year to date, on par with the Nasdaq 100. x.com
GameStop's revenue record does not support growth expectations. Revenue missed estimates in five of the last eight quarters. x.com
GameStop shareholders are likely to be diluted to fill a funding gap of more than $10B. Its CEO implied as much in an interview without saying it outright, which is most likely why the stock reversed course. x.com
GameStop keeps winning under Ryan Cohen, now forecasting adjusted EBITDA above $600M for the fiscal year ending January 2027, versus $345.4M the prior year. x.com
GameStop shareholders face about 70% dilution to fund CEO Ryan Cohen's $56 billion offer to buy eBay, with no short squeeze coming. A year ago Cohen was hyping Bitcoin purchases, which raises doubts about whether he knows what he is doing. After that interview, a GameStop shareholder should sell every last share. x.com x.com x.com x.com
GameStop's eBay bid looks unlikely to get funded, because Ryan Cohen only gets the $20 billion of financing if the deal stays investment grade, which is not likely. Per @Stonkfather2021, buying 51% of eBay would take about $28.4 billion, covered by GameStop's $9.5 billion+ and TD Securities' $20 billion. x.com
GameStop's Ryan Cohen is making one of the most aggressive streaks of insider purchases relative to market cap over such a short period. He bought another 700,000 shares at an average $24.41, about $17.1M, per an SEC Form 4 reported by @ReesePolitics, a show of conviction that ignores rising yields. x.com
eBay looks overpriced at $116.50 against GameStop's takeover math, making a short cheap convexity. GameStop's original $125 offer, half cash and half stock, now implies about $116-117 after GameStop's roughly 15% drop, while a rational 10% arb spread would need a $129-130 bid. Funding that with GameStop stock needs about 20% more or heavy leverage. eBay is not a pretty asset and hardly the tip of the spear in new commerce; a higher bidder is the risk. x.com x.com