GameStop's case rests on CEO Ryan Cohen's continued insider buying, nearly $70 million this year, supporting a $30 target. The stock is up almost 20% year to date, on par with the Nasdaq 100. x.com
Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
GameStop's Ryan Cohen is making one of the most aggressive streaks of insider purchases relative to market cap over such a short period. He bought another 700,000 shares at an average $24.41, about $17.1M, per an SEC Form 4 reported by @ReesePolitics, a show of conviction that ignores rising yields. x.com
Insider purchases are a bullish signal for GameStop, Adobe, Salesforce, Lululemon and now Opendoor. Kasra Nejatian bought $100k of Opendoor on August 14; Ryan Cohen bought $26.4M of GameStop, David Ricks $1.9M of Adobe, David Blair Kirk $999k of Salesforce and Charles Bergh $500k of Lululemon. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
GameStop will go lower after hitting new 52-week lows, with $14-$16 the likely floor. If Ryan Cohen doesn't inspire shareholder confidence, it could fall as low as $10, and hedge funds love shorting it. x.com
GameStop keeps winning under Ryan Cohen, now forecasting adjusted EBITDA above $600M for the fiscal year ending January 2027, versus $345.4M the prior year. x.com
GameStop looks like a reasonable bet despite misgivings about CEO Ryan Cohen, because it holds a ton of cash and is not buying eBay. x.com
GameStop has not created value where it matters to shareholders: the share price has been a dog for five years. Much of that came from heavy dilution and from alienating the investor base that drove the stock to parabolic heights. The idea that Ryan Cohen creates shareholder value is revisionist history, whatever the balance-sheet gains. x.com
GameStop's $56 billion, $125-a-share bid for eBay could unlock over $100 billion of value by turning eBay from a stagnant auction site into a true Amazon rival under Ryan Cohen. Synergies span collectibles, trading cards, live commerce and store pickups, plus cost cuts and AI upgrades. Cohen's track record stands out, and the absence of any Wall Street buy rating on GameStop is a strong contrarian buy signal. x.com
GameStop's proposal to acquire eBay matters most because it would put Ryan Cohen in charge of the combined company, which should create more shareholder value than anything else. Cohen founded Chewy, now a $10B company, saved GameStop from its demise and built a fortified balance sheet. Dismissing the proposal is a rookie mistake. x.com x.com
GameStop's eBay bid looks unlikely to get funded, because Ryan Cohen only gets the $20 billion of financing if the deal stays investment grade, which is not likely. Per @Stonkfather2021, buying 51% of eBay would take about $28.4 billion, covered by GameStop's $9.5 billion+ and TD Securities' $20 billion. x.com
Avoiding GameStop's unsolicited proposal and Ryan Cohen's weak execution leaves eBay better placed. eBay is easily worth over $100B today and should be worth much more in five years without GameStop and Cohen; Cohen is not the one to beat Amazon. x.com