Mike
Long-Term Investor, Technology & Crypto
GameStop's proposal to acquire eBay matters most because it would put Ryan Cohen in charge of the combined company, which should create more shareholder value than anything else. Cohen founded Chewy, now a $10B company, saved GameStop from its demise and built a fortified balance sheet. Dismissing the proposal is a rookie mistake. x.com x.comÂ
GameStop's $56 billion, $125-a-share bid for eBay could unlock over $100 billion of value by turning eBay from a stagnant auction site into a true Amazon rival under Ryan Cohen. Synergies span collectibles, trading cards, live commerce and store pickups, plus cost cuts and AI upgrades. Cohen's track record stands out, and the absence of any Wall Street buy rating on GameStop is a strong contrarian buy signal. x.comÂ
eBay looks overpriced at $116.50 against GameStop's takeover math, making a short cheap convexity. GameStop's original $125 offer, half cash and half stock, now implies about $116-117 after GameStop's roughly 15% drop, while a rational 10% arb spread would need a $129-130 bid. Funding that with GameStop stock needs about 20% more or heavy leverage. eBay is not a pretty asset and hardly the tip of the spear in new commerce; a higher bidder is the risk. x.com x.comÂ
GameStop looks like a reasonable bet despite misgivings about CEO Ryan Cohen, because it holds a ton of cash and is not buying eBay. x.comÂ
GameStop lacks the money for its eBay bid, and Ryan Cohen's interview suggests he is using retail investors as exit liquidity. The proposal offers $125 per eBay share, half cash and half GameStop stock, valuing eBay equity at $55.5 billion, with a TD Securities letter for up to $20 billion of financing. The interview sent GameStop shares lower. x.comÂ
eBay's 18.5x multiple rests on earnings that look unsustainable. That valuation is well above most internet and retail peers despite no acceleration in fundamentals, while the trading-card-game tailwind is in its later innings. Rotational flows are the only apparent obstacle to shorting it. x.com x.comÂ
eBay is getting new life from a possible takeover bid by GameStop's Ryan Cohen, who already owns 7% of the float. It has strong free cash flow, four years of rising revenue, accelerating EPS since late 2023 and growth every quarter since September 2021. MarketSurge notes a bullish base breakout, and the target is $125. x.com x.comÂ
GameStop's eBay bid looks unlikely to get funded, because Ryan Cohen only gets the $20 billion of financing if the deal stays investment grade, which is not likely. Per @Stonkfather2021, buying 51% of eBay would take about $28.4 billion, covered by GameStop's $9.5 billion+ and TD Securities' $20 billion. x.comÂ
A GameStop bid for eBay looks unworkable, so both stocks should fade. GameStop would need to issue about 1 billion shares, wipe out its treasury and take on heavy debt, making Elon Musk's Twitter deal look easy. The deal probably never happens, and if a real offer is made, GameStop has no chance of trading up. x.comÂ
GameStop's case rests on CEO Ryan Cohen's continued insider buying, nearly $70 million this year, supporting a $30 target. The stock is up almost 20% year to date, on par with the Nasdaq 100. x.comÂ