Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.com 

Eni is the premier public way to profit from Algeria's insulated pipeline gas exports to Europe if the Strait of Hormuz closes. As the primary foreign partner of Algeria's Sonatrach, it owns irreplaceable Mediterranean infrastructure feeding Europe's structural gas deficit. With a portfolio breakeven below $40 a barrel, price gains from a supply shock drop almost entirely to the bottom line. Risks include European windfall taxes, shifting carbon rules and offshore execution. x.com  x.com 

US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com  … Show more

Baker Hughes, Valero Energy and Cheniere Energy stand to profit from a dual catalyst: the oil shock and tariff refunds. The three were identified by using AI to comb through large amounts of data. x.com 

Epsilon Energy is uninteresting now because its natural gas windfall window has passed and its pivot to oil is poorly timed. It burned through reserves waiting for a gas recovery after prices fell in 2022, then made a mediocre acquisition and is plowing oil capex into a heavily backwardated curve. Its midstream asset is diluted, SG&A is bloated, and incentives and hedges are poor. Oil above $80 to lock in, stronger gas, organic reserve growth or a price of $5.50 or lower would change that. x.com 

Canadian Natural Resources' slowly declining oil and gas reserves will last many years and give it very steady production. It generates a lot of cash even when markets are tough, has raised its dividend for 26 years in a row, and plans to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. x.com 

PBF Energy is cheap against its earnings at about $80.69, trading at 7x earnings and 5x next year's versus the 14x oil and gas producers usually get. Applying 14x to mid-cycle EPS of $9.12, plus or minus 12%, gives fair value of $112.38 to $143.03, leaving it 28% below the low end. This is a valuation screen only, without fundamental work. x.com 

BP has further to go as new CEO Meg O'Neill resets it into a traditional oil and gas major focused on returns and cash flow. Renewable spending is being cut by $5-10 billion while oil and gas investment rises 20% to $10 billion a year. BP plans $20 billion of asset sales by 2027 and aims to cut debt from $22 billion to $14-18 billion, pausing buybacks. Continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz adds support, though the climate pullback faces ESG pushback. x.com 

US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.com 

Vista Energy grows over 20% yet trades at about 10x earnings, while most big oil companies trade at 20-25x with single-digit growth. It also works as an oil hedge. x.com  x.com