Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Adobe can still come back because the market is pricing an apocalypse that analyst forecasts do not show. Consensus sees revenue reaching $28.4 billion by FY2027, about 30% growth over three years, an estimate that has not fallen over the past year, and net margin expanding from 30% to 37%. Yet the stock is in the bottom 1% for price momentum and trades at about 10x forward earnings. x.comÂ
Adobe's cash generation and growing AI subscriptions give its tentative turnaround fundamental support. It has $10.59B in free cash flow; revenue and EPS are expected to grow at double-digit rates through 2028, while AI-first ARR is up 150% year over year and Firefly ARR 40% quarter over quarter. Its Stage 1 base is attempting to break a long downtrend. x.comÂ
Adobe is pushing off 8-year lows as revenue growth accelerates, after testing that range on its highest weekly volume ever, a sign the market may have it wrong. x.comÂ
Adobe's 8x P/E signals that its outlook numbers are unreliable, its capital allocation is poor and it is likely a casualty of AI. It spent all its free cash flow buying back shares at $400 and is on a direct collision course with AI; no one can say its products will be as crucial as in the last two decades. Unlike Meta in 2022, whose ads business was never impaired, there are too many unknowns. It could work or stagnate for years, so it sits in the too-hard bucket even if multiples scream buy. … Show more
Adobe trades at 2018 price levels even though revenue has grown nearly 200% since then, from $2.2B to $6.4B, and its $25B buyback on a $100B market cap amounts to a quarter of the company. The bottom may not be in yet, but the market won't ignore it forever. x.comÂ
Adobe's results are solid enough that panic selling looks insane. It delivered a double beat, raised full-year guidance and has some stability with a new CEO, yet many investors are again calling it trash. x.comÂ
Adobe remains the best example of what not to buy because AI has had minimal impact and its backlog is slowing rapidly. Management chose user acquisition over monetization, as Duolingo did, leaving open whether users stay when prices rise; for now, waiting to monetize looks the same as being unable to. Free or cheaper tools that match its specialist subscriptions could cut usage, RPO and cash generation. When acceleration and margin expansion are everywhere, owning neither makes little sense. … Show more
Adobe is a bit undervalued, though not significantly, at 13x earnings with 13% revenue growth. Its falling profit margin is concerning, and AI threats are growing as image generation improves. x.comÂ
Adobe trades at 10x forward earnings despite a massive creative-software moat, as the market writes it off as a dead legacy app because of AI tools. It has trained its AI on billions of proprietary assets, embedded Firefly in 75% of the Fortune 500 and reached $26 billion of recurring revenue, even after regulators killed its $20 billion Figma deal and its CEO stepped down. The next decade could be challenging for growth, though nothing shows signs of that yet. x.com x.comÂ
Adobe is not re-accelerating: management guides growth down to 9-10% with operating margins falling, and more pressure lies ahead. That makes buying every dip at about 16x earnings a mistake, even as @qualtrim points to 12% revenue growth and a 47.4% operating margin. x.com x.comÂ
Adobe is priced below its Covid-crash intraday low even though it now makes 3x more money with 20% fewer shares, and its best run of profit growth has come during the AI era. It beat last quarter's guidance and raised its full-year outlook, yet trades around 10x current, a low price for growth that should destroy the bear narrative. It also bought back 9.5M shares for over $2.3B. x.com x.comÂ
