Okta is being run like Cisco, for low growth, profitability and buybacks, rather than as a high-growth tech company trying to win, after three years of layoffs. Its AI thesis is generic and soft, and beyond customer inertia there is no strong answer for why it wins in five years. Its model rests on switching costs, yet net retention keeps declining, and outsourcing implementation to GSIs gives up the proprietary deployment knowledge that could deepen its moat. x.com 

CrowdStrike's selloff makes sense on terminal-value concerns, especially if LLMs take market share, because it trades at 40x sales and still operates at a loss despite a $200B valuation. Okta, about a tenth its size, trades at roughly a quarter of the valuation with far better financials, yet got the same treatment. x.com 

Okta should capture durable value from agentic AI because every agent touching enterprise data needs authentication, authorization and auditability, making identity infrastructure. Okta is the only independent identity platform with real enterprise distribution, a launched non-human identity product, and early signs of contract-value expansion. It trades far below its historical multiple despite 27% FCF margins, priced as if Microsoft consolidates identity, unlikely in multi-cloud firms. x.com  … Show more

Okta's valuation is not justifiable at a P/E of 114 with only 10% revenue growth; it is speculation at its finest. x.com 

OneSpan's subscription and recurring-revenue growth add operating evidence for its place among the identity-security picks. Revenue beat expectations at $63.9M, and full-year revenue, ARR and adjusted EBITDA guidance rose. Mitek and Clear Secure also look attractive. Financial institutions in Korea and India reported breaches; CrowdStrike says the Korean attacker used an AI penetration-testing tool. Binance had not confirmed the suspected hot-wallet hack. x.com  x.com 

AI is turning security spending from optional to essential, and beats from CrowdStrike and Okta confirm it. CrowdStrike's Q2 revenue rose 26% with record net new ARR of $333M, up 51%, and raised guidance; Okta's RPO reached $4.86B, up 17%, with a second guidance raise this year, after Fortinet also raised. AI agents and coding widen attack surfaces, Morgan Stanley estimates up to $220B of added security demand, and buyers are consolidating onto platforms. x.com  x.com 

Okta is unlikely to sustain mid-teens growth, and valued on free cash flow including stock-based compensation it trades above 40x. Workforce identity grew 11%, and although cRPO rose 14%, it is at risk from layoffs, whether AI-driven to free up token budgets or efficiency cuts. Whether margins flatline in the high 20s is still to be seen. x.com  x.com 

Okta's risk/reward is no longer attractive after doubling in three months, at 10 times FY27 sales and over 50 times earnings. Even if agentic AI products reach half of its 20,000 enterprise customers within two years with a 40% contract-value uplift, implying 13-15% annual sales growth, it is not cheap; a 50-60% uplift and 17-20% growth still isn't. Agentic AI is exponential, so the growth duration may be underestimated, but two-thirds of the position has been sold. x.com 

Cybersecurity, the best-performing part of software this year, can keep rising as AI safety concerns emerge. Okta is up 116% year to date, Fortinet 113%, Palo Alto Networks 104%, CrowdStrike 99%, Datadog 69%, Cloudflare 67%, F5 61% and SentinelOne 50%. Every one beat on both revenue and EPS last quarter and trades above major technical supports. x.com 

Okta's valuation is hard to justify at over 100x trailing GAAP earnings for a company growing about 11%. It has $296M of trailing GAAP net income against a $30B market cap, so its bottom line must outgrow revenue for years just to support today's price, which already prices that in. x.com