The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Bitcoin and Ethereum may be staging their usual comeback in total silence. Both are pushing to break months-long trendlines after a volume spike that, so far, marked the bottom, yet no one on social media is talking about them even as risk assets make new 52-week highs. Crypto joined the past months' decline but missed this week's rally, making it one of the best risk/rewards around as it eventually catches up. The last breakout failed badly, so a second attempt has to hold. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and ether remain attractive for gradual long-term accumulation despite high volatility, with institutional demand still present. Crypto is heavily influenced by large players' buying and selling, and a final wave of panic before the next major rally would not be surprising, especially if that weakness is quickly bought. x.com
Bitcoin ETF demand has snapped back despite continued Ethereum ETF outflows. Bitcoin ETFs drew $301.2M last week after $1.77B left the two products over the prior two weeks; Ethereum ETFs lost $220.7M. Bitcoin rose one year after all four previous US midterms, with the next nine days away. Per @0xCryptoChan, prior recovery tops or subtops came 78-85 days after crossing the 3-6 month holder cost-basis line. Now at day 65, the next 2-3 weeks could get wild, though ETFs have changed cycle timing. … Show more
Ethereum faces further downside as smart money sells into strength during distribution. A move toward $2,070 comes first; a break there puts $1,800 in view, with a possible local bottom near $1,600-$1,700 where liquidity sits. Until that sweep, bounces are for selling; a real reversal comes only afterward. x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
Bitcoin and Ether are being bought up on negative news, which is a bullish sign not to ignore. x.com
Ethereum feels weak with no clear catalyst, despite an appealing story of institutional adoption for real utility and infrastructure. The crypto craze may have petered out after about 15 years, and bitter memories of losses from counterparty blowups such as Voyager and FTX may never fade. x.com
Crypto's coming run will be much larger than 2020's because stock-market and gold runs into 2026 exceeded those into 2020. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's runs into 2025 also exceeded those into 2019. Macro-risk ratios across stocks, metals, oil, PMI and crypto again resemble 2016 and 2020, positioning Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins for a major bull run. Focus on 2027-28; the one-year median altcoin return against Bitcoin is still -17.5%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
