Bitcoin and Ether are being bought up on negative news, which is a bullish sign not to ignore. x.com
Prof
Macro & Equity Commentary, Risk & Market Psychology
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and ether remain attractive for gradual long-term accumulation despite high volatility, with institutional demand still present. Crypto is heavily influenced by large players' buying and selling, and a final wave of panic before the next major rally would not be surprising, especially if that weakness is quickly bought. x.com
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum may be staging their usual comeback in total silence. Both are pushing to break months-long trendlines after a volume spike that, so far, marked the bottom, yet no one on social media is talking about them even as risk assets make new 52-week highs. Crypto joined the past months' decline but missed this week's rally, making it one of the best risk/rewards around as it eventually catches up. The last breakout failed badly, so a second attempt has to hold. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a crypto winter that won't last long, so now is the time to accumulate. Investors will rotate back to crypto when high-beta equities go bust, the cycle that creates crypto winters and summers. x.com
Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com x.com
Bitcoin now has the chance to become what it was designed for, a true digital store of value and safe haven, since it has shown virtually zero correlation with the US market over the past 12 months. Bitcoin has completed its Cycle Wave 2 pullback while the broader market may correct later this year, so both Bitcoin and Ether look like attractive buys at these levels. x.com