KawzInvests
Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space
Firefly Aerospace's thesis was never just rockets, as it won a $75M NASA JPL subcontract to deliver four drones to the Moon's south pole for MoonFall, the first phase of NASA's Moon Base initiative. Its Elytra spacecraft uses the same proven systems that landed Blue Ghost, and the award adds to three other CLPS Moon missions on its manifest. A 12M-share offering at $49.50 brings the company $190M of fresh cash. x.com
Firefly Aerospace trades at a 7x market-cap discount to Rocket Lab while spanning launch, lunar landers, orbital transfer vehicles and defense software. At about 13x its $420-450M revenue guide versus Rocket Lab's roughly 45x, it owns SciTec, the first new US missile warning ground prime in 50 years, adding $164M of annual defense revenue, and joined the $151B Golden Dome vehicle. Rocket Lab's multiple rests on a slipping Neutron, while Firefly's Eclipse flies in 2027. x.com x.com x.com
Firefly Aerospace is growing fast across rockets, lunar landers and AI-enabled missile defense software, and it has been selected for the Golden Dome program. Q1 2026 revenue rose 45% to $80.9M, with full-year guidance of $420-450M and a $1.3B backlog. It is the only commercial company to have launched to orbit on 24-hour notice. x.com
Firefly Aerospace likely has pretty good risk/reward here because successful execution could reward investors. It remains very unproven in a space industry with zero margin for error, so that upside depends on execution. x.com
Firefly Aerospace's launch vehicle is unreliable and plagued with delays. Firefly was slated to launch the Jackal in the US military space exercise covered by @arstechnica but failed to do so, and SpaceX had to fill in. x.com
Firefly Aerospace has two growth engines, space commercialization and accelerating defense spending, backed by high revenue visibility. NASA lunar missions drive recurring demand for its Blue Ghost lander, smallsat constellations need dedicated Alpha launches, and its SciTec unit supports missile defense, including Golden Dome. Its $1.3B+ backlog, over 60% government, covers 80% of 2026 revenue of $420-450M, and in-house rockets, landers and AI software make it a one-stop mission provider. x.com
Firefly Aerospace could be the next Rocket Lab, trading at 12.5x forward EV/revenue versus Rocket Lab's 43x despite lunar capability Rocket Lab lacks. It is the only private company to land cleanly on the Moon, and SciTec defense software is 40% of revenue. 2026 guidance of $435M means 170% growth, with 80% under contract, $893M of cash and three more Blue Ghost missions worth $487M. As SpaceX turns to the Moon ahead of its IPO, Firefly is the only proven lunar surface vendor. x.com
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and SpaceX are too risky to buy at today's valuations, given the potential for a cascade decline. Index-inclusion buying may keep SpaceX and sympathy names bid for months, but in another growth bear market like 2021's aftermath they could fall hard and recover slowly even if the businesses execute, and SpaceX may eventually crash the party. They remain liked, just not worth adding; Northrop Grumman is the preferred space stock. … Show more
Firefly Aerospace has already joined the supply chain for NASA's nuclear-powered SR-1 Freedom Mars mission, which President Trump highlighted and which targets a late-2028 launch. In July Firefly won a $13M contract to build, test and deliver the aeroshell that protects the SkyFall probe and helicopters entering Mars' atmosphere, making it a hardware supplier beyond launch. The mission's launch provider has not yet been named. NASA's tight schedule favors companies with existing hardware. x.com
NASA's new Moon Base initiative is solid government demand for lunar companies such as Firefly, Intuitive Machines and Voyager. NASA picked Astrobotic, Intuitive Machines and Firefly for CLPS missions, awarding Firefly $144.2 million and Intuitive Machines $148.3 million for one lander delivery each, and the opportunities arising on the Moon keep growing. x.com
The selloff in smaller space stocks after SpaceX's IPO is an opportunity: it was mechanical rotation into the new benchmark, not a rerating, as Rocket Lab was sold the week it joined the Nasdaq 100. Satellites bill monthly for years while rockets get paid once; AST SpaceMobile stands out with approval and launch cadence. SpaceX is the core holding, Rocket Lab's Neutron the second-mover bet; Firefly, Virgin Galactic and Momentus are lottery tickets or survival cases. Suppliers are ballast. x.com … Show more
Firefly Aerospace looks very attractive at about $27 a share, a $4.5B market cap, after a 53% fall since May, because a high-margin AI and data business is hiding inside the space stock. Blue Ghost 1 returned 120GB of lunar data and NASA ordered $10M more. On Blue Ghost 2, Firefly's Ocula imaging runs Nvidia Jetson in lunar orbit, the first edge AI around the moon, with SciTec software on top and a five-year Elytra mission. In-space data processing is the near-term orbital AI opportunity. x.com
