KawzInvests
Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space
Nokia is gaining exposure to AI buildouts, now tied to a 100,000-GPU humanoid robot deployment. Nscale, which is building a reported $45B Anthropic data-center partnership on Nokia switching, will deploy up to 100,000 Nvidia GPUs for Figure's humanoid robots. Nokia's optical business booked €2.8B in AI and cloud orders last quarter, and AI-RAN, which puts Nvidia GPUs in cell towers for edge inference, begins commercializing in 2027. It is still very early. x.com
Nokia should benefit from scale-across demand for linking AI data centers, yet its stock still lags peers. Lumentum's CEO said linking just two AI data center sites for one hyperscaler takes double the backbone capacity it built over the last decade. Nokia credits its Q2 AI and cloud growth to scale-across fabrics, with €2.8B in orders, while its stock is down 36% from the June high. JPMorgan sees scale-across as a $100bn-plus market by early next decade. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Nokia's AI-RAN could gain SpaceX as a customer if its Nvidia-enabled solution fits SpaceX's compute needs. BofA says virtually all of SpaceX's current compute runs on Nvidia GPUs; the solution's higher cost and software mix could lift BofA's base-case incremental RAN assumptions. x.com
Nokia's guidance raise was just an accounting shift, leaving a steep climb to its profit target. The bump to €2.1-2.6 billion came from moving two business lines into discontinued operations; JPMorgan asked why operating targets weren't raised. With about €735 million of H1 operating profit, Nokia needs €1.8-1.9 billion in H2 for the top end, so delays risk a miss. Memory and optics remain bottlenecks, and only about half of €2.8 billion in AI and Cloud orders converts within 12 months. x.com … Show more
Nokia is also a robotics play, since the 6G network connecting humanoid robots could become as important as the robots themselves. Millions of robots learning together will need to offload AI workloads to edge servers and the cloud with almost no delay, receive new models and share what they learn. Nokia also launched the first commercial AI-RAN platform, built on its anyRAN software and NVIDIA's Aerial, showing 20%+ spectral-efficiency gains and targeting 50% by 2027 and 100%+ by 2028. x.com … Show more
Nokia is turning into an AI infrastructure play that the market is noticing late. Its growth drivers include AI-RAN, optical networking such as 800G optics for AI data centers, data center connectivity demand and 5G/6G expansion. Nvidia took a roughly $1B stake to accelerate AI-driven networking, and Nokia is partnering with Anduril on next-generation defense communications. x.com
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia is turning into an AI network powerhouse, and its fundamentals and technicals are aligning for a major move. Its $1 billion Nvidia partnership on AI-RAN and 6G is entering live commercial trials with operators this month, a Microsoft expansion links Nokia Data Suite with Microsoft Fabric, and it is converting a €2.8 billion AI order book while winning AI-native 5G deals with Taiwan Mobile and Chunghwa Telecom. Price has reclaimed its 50 and 200 EMAs; a move above 12 could reach 13+. x.com
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.com
Nokia's AI and cloud orders are set to turn into revenue, with about half of Q2's EUR 2.8B intake expected to convert over the next 12 months. Its San Jose fab ramps in Q4, Pennsylvania test and packaging capacity expands 10x from Q3, and an NXP Chandler fab lease for indium phosphide chips starts in early 2027, all for demand expected in 2027-28. Nokia targets EUR 2.7-3.2B of comparable operating profit by 2028, up from EUR 2.1-2.6B guided for 2026. x.com
Physical AI could open a new demand curve for Nvidia before humanoids ship in volume, as the biggest chip opportunity may first sit in data centers training robots. Figure reportedly plans about 100,000 Vera Rubin GPUs from 2027, roughly 230MW mostly for training. Per Goldman, a humanoid holds only a few thousand dollars of chips, but each robotics company chasing frontier capability may become a major compute customer. Some demand is circular; training bills pay off only if fleets grow large. … Show more
