Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Slow capacity growth and HBM's heavy wafer use make a near-term collapse in memory-stock profits look too gloomy. Goldman Sachs thinks the memory shortage could last until 2030: makers are adding capacity at 7-8% a year through 2030, versus 12% in the last boom, and each HBM wafer displaces capacity for about three ordinary-memory wafers. SK hynix trades at 4x forward earnings and Micron at 6x, multiples that imply the market expects profits to collapse soon. x.com
Memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix, SanDisk and Samsung are worth holding for the upside from huge AI-driven profits over the next couple of years, but owners hold the cycle, not cheap stocks. Per JPMorgan, even at single-digit forward earnings memory stocks look expensive on long-term math. Memory is a commodity cycle: mean reversion is inevitable and the sharp profit contraction always comes. x.com x.com
Hynix's sold-out memory supply supports expectations for big numbers from Micron, still trading at 5x forward earnings. Hynix says its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029 and a chip shortage is likely to continue into 2030. Big numbers and capital return are expected after Micron reports in December. x.com
Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.com
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
SK hynix and other Korean memory makers' aggressive price hikes invite customers to optimize memory use, undermining the case for 90% margins despite a long-term shortage. Memory is the only layer raising cost per token. Elon Musk described Micron's future pricing as reasonable and other suppliers' as extortionate, warning that today's customers would not forget; exorbitant long-term contracts compound that risk. x.com x.com
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com
SK hynix's enforceable long-term supply commitments add visibility to memory profits. It says DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out, with agreements covering over half of 2027-28 capacity while retaining pricing flexibility. Operating profit beat expectations at $62.8B versus about $58B, and SK hynix announced $75B in 2026 shareholder returns. It expects the memory shortage to persist through 2030. x.com
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com
SK hynix's stronger pricing and contracted demand support the still-favored memory duration trade. DRAM and HBM capacity is sold out through 2029, and a supply-demand imbalance is expected through 2030. More than half of 2027-28 capacity is under long-term agreements, with agreed 2027 HBM prices significantly higher year on year. Guangfa HK expects fund flows and bearish sentiment to improve after earnings. x.com
