TrumpGrift Capital
Equity Investing Commentary
GitLab doesn't justify 65x forward earnings or a 17% post-earnings jump. Gross margin is compressing, possibly structurally, the quarter and guide show little operating leverage, it is still EBIT-negative at a $9.2bn market cap, and guidance appears to point to decelerating growth. x.com
Elevated AI risk makes GitLab a stock not worth being long at $60, despite a personal fair-value estimate at that level. A post by choblin29 reports that Anthropic replaced Git with its own version-control system and built Scion for code review. x.com x.com
GitLab could pop 20% if its guidance proves sandbagged and it beats and raises. Last quarter's growth was 23%, while guidance for the coming quarter is 15-16%, so a beat looks achievable. Guidance matters most, and it has a good chance of moving up as more code is being produced. x.com x.com
GitLab faces an existential crisis as the AI "SaaSapocalypse" arrives, yet it still trades at 4.7x sales despite decelerating growth and 10+ analyst downgrades in 2026. x.com
GitLab's results don't justify the stock's after-hours rise. Expense dollars grew far faster than revenue dollars, 117% net retention is unimpressive at this valuation, and stock-based compensation rose 50% year over year. x.com
OpenAI's open-source Codex Security CLI looks complementary to GitLab rather than a threat, and the market has moved past punishing GitLab on such news. Six months ago, a release that lets users scan repositories, verify fixes and add security checks to CI/CD would have sent the stock down 10%. x.com
GitLab's revenue strength is not worth celebrating because it jammed sales and marketing spending to grab subscribers. x.com
GitLab is poorly placed to exploit GitHub's moment of weakness because its product is too similar to GitHub and in many ways worse. Hands-on testing found poor design: it took minutes to find where to create a repo, and pushing failed because force push to main was disabled. That explains why few are talking about migrating despite the stock's 50%+ fall over the past year. Unless it reinvents the product, it is not worth buying; whatever comes next in source control will look different. x.com … Show more
GitLab is buyable again with the worst of capitulation behind it, as platform usage rises. Its problem was a pricing model leading with full-platform sales at $20-30 a user, limiting upsell, but it is one of the few SaaS companies that can price for usage. DAP offers unpriced optionality for revenue acceleration or margin upside over time, and more in-house software development in sectors like healthcare and financials could support seats. A sale may still be the better outcome. x.com x.com
GitLab is not going to become the new GitHub. As @endingwithali notes, GitLab's CEO previously ran New Relic, which was sold to private equity rather than becoming the alternative customers sought when they were annoyed at Datadog's prices. x.com