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Crypto Trader, Market Analyst
As robotics scales, its bottleneck suppliers should benefit with higher margins, especially on the software side, which favors BlackBerry. Humanoid robots face hard problems, from making coffee without breaking a favorite mug to navigating stairs and handling objects with varying force, and only Elon Musk has the money and infrastructure to scale them as far as people imagine. x.com
BlackBerry's growth trajectory looks exceptional over the next few years, helped by a large volume of US government contracts. Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue rose 26% to about $153 million and adjusted EBITDA 144%, with QNX and Secure Communications both at Rule of 40, a fifth straight quarter of GAAP profit and its first positive operating cash flow quarter in nine years, excluding a patent sale. x.com
BlackBerry's $1.2B QNX backlog looks substantial against its $5B market cap. Quarter-over-quarter earnings growth, positive EBITDA and its Nvidia physical-AI and robotics RTOS partnership underpin the bullish case. x.com x.com
BlackBerry is probably a good long-term bet as an unexpected winner of its pivot from phones to isolated operating systems, whose target markets of robotics, autonomous vehicles and space travel are all growing. The chart also looks bullish, with a clear inverse head-and-shoulders bottom in 2024, several breakouts and gaps up, and the price now above many key support levels. Its market cap is around $5.5B. x.com x.com x.com x.com
BlackBerry's turnaround is real, but the stock already prices in a lot of execution that hasn't shown up in the numbers. QNX revenue rose 20% to a record $78.7 million, its royalty backlog hit $950 million, and a deeper Nvidia deal takes QNX into robotics, medical and industrial systems. But after a roughly 140% gain it trades above 100x earnings, most analysts rate it Hold with targets about 50% below the price, and growth still leans on autos, exposed to tariffs and slower car production. … Show more
BlackBerry's QNX royalty backlog above $1.2B gives greater visibility into future high-margin software revenue. It rose 26% in two quarters, reflecting demand in software-defined vehicles and potential for more royalties per vehicle, with opportunities in autonomous systems and robotics. The backlog is not guaranteed revenue. x.com
BlackBerry's QNX is becoming a non-negotiable foundation for physical AI and smart vehicles, driving high-margin recurring royalties. Its Global Embedded Market segment is now its fastest-growing, the robotics and industrial-automation pipeline is at a record high, and Nvidia is embedding QNX in autonomous machine stacks. Quarterly revenue of $152.9 million beat the $137.7 million consensus, and management raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance. x.com
BlackBerry is expensive against its cash earnings, trading at 42 times this year's and 38 times next year's, while software companies usually get about 30. Fair value runs about $6.05 to $7.70, or 30 times next year's cash earnings, so at $8.73 buyers pay roughly 13% above the top of that range; above $10.18 it is expensive. x.com
BlackBerry is effectively a bet on QNX, which holds the safety-critical software layer of Physical AI. QNX has about 38% of the global auto OS market, in over 275M vehicles; Q4 revenue rose 20% to $78.7M and its royalty backlog reached $950M. Integration with Nvidia's IGX Thor extends it into robots, medical and industrial systems, where years-long safety certification makes it hard to replace. Its other businesses grow slowly, so a QNX slowdown would leave no second engine. x.com
BlackBerry's QNX results signal accelerating R&D for smart factories and robots, a positive read-through for Rockwell Automation and Teradyne. QNX development license revenue hit an eight-quarter high, a leading indicator because engineers buy licenses before new cobots or controllers ship. CEO John Giamatteo cited growth from physical AI and industrial automation, and QNX demand rose 26%. Spending on certified, secure software points to resilient industrial tech capex. x.com
BlackBerry's substantial lead over prospective entrants in its niche leaves no reason for its shares to trade below $25, a somewhat conservative minimum. x.com
BlackBerry has become a critical-systems software company, as its QNX software is the hidden operating system in 275 million cars, running collision warnings, blind-spot detection, adaptive cruise and lane-keep assist. The same technology runs surgical robots, medical devices and factory automation. QNX is now 50% of revenue, and BlackBerry has posted four straight profitable quarters, its first since it competed with the iPhone. It combines meme-stock appeal with real fundamentals. x.com
