Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Amazon, Uber, DoorDash and Costco will keep taking share because consumers want less friction. These are not delivery apps or retail formats but infrastructure for time-starved and money-starved households, and convenience is winning as consumers learn to manage food, fitness and health on their own. x.comÂ
Uber's potential Instacart acquisition could create valuable marketplace and route-density synergies. Scaled marketplace assets are rare; buying one would also keep competitors from consolidating grocery delivery, a sticky category with large average orders. Growth alone is not the measure of the deal, and tech buybacks are overrated. x.com x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.comÂ
Uber and DoorDash run commodity businesses that depend on governments able to spoil them, leaving much risk and little upside. Per @OnlyInBOS, Massachusetts now guarantees Uber and Lyft drivers at least $34.48 an hour plus benefits under a $175M settlement, and per @Investor_NICK_, Minneapolis's city council is proposing an emergency meeting to ban DoorDash drone delivery to protect drivers' income. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash's position is examined in a piece on how groceries, aggregators and AI agents interact, alongside Walmart and Amazon. x.comÂ
Companies that make life easier for customers benefit as people keep wanting things faster, easier and more convenient, and the easier a company makes life, the more interesting the business gets. The basket: Amazon for delivering everything, Uber for rides and food, DoorDash for local delivery, Netflix for on-demand entertainment, Spotify for on-demand audio, SoFi for money in one app and Shopify for easier online selling. x.comÂ
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Discount retailers are a built-in recession hedge because consumers trade down rather than stop spending. Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Dollar General should benefit as worsening economic conditions send more shoppers through their doors. x.comÂ
American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.comÂ
Amazon is losing ground in shopping and should not hide behind a far-off $1T AWS. Customers go where the experience is easy, products are solid and prices great, and Amazon has lost the price battle. Blocking AI shopping agents would cost it the easy experience, while agents predicting orders from a user's history would erase its delivery-speed advantage. Shopify's CEO lifted Shopify 14% with one post on agentic commerce while Amazon fumbled; Amazon needs to wake up before losing share. x.com … Show more
Amazon, Uber, Netflix and Snap can become more valuable by earning more from audiences they already have. Amazon's ad revenue grew 26% to $19.8B last quarter; Uber's ads surpassed a $2.5B annualized run rate, growing roughly 50%; Netflix expects about $2.7B in ads this year; Snap's subscription-driven other revenue grew 85% to $316M last quarter. Investors underestimate how valuable that can become over time. x.comÂ
