AMD's $518 share price is far ahead of what it earns: less than $7 a share annualized, in the greatest earnings environment in its history. Annualizing its $11.5B quarterly revenue to $46B puts it at 18 times revenue, a 5.5% yield even if it had no taxes, employees or cost of goods and simply collected the money. x.com 

AMD is no longer cheap after surpassing the $600 base case originally set for 2029 while it is still 2026. At a 55x forward P/E the market is paying up for its big growth, even though consistent beats and sharply raised long-term guidance show the model working and analysts likely still underestimate its earnings power. It is a hold here, not a buy. x.com 

AMD is held for its strong earnings growth, which, when it continues into the next quarter, is a reason to own a company beyond a good-looking chart. Price and risk then decide whether to take the trade. x.com 

AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com  x.com 

AMD's fundamentals are very strong, but about 50x 2028 estimated earnings is a price that cannot be normalized for any company, under an investment philosophy that may be wrong. Per PrivPubInvestor, the stock rose from $450 to almost $650 in two weeks on CPU demand, analyst price-target hikes, new partnerships and the Helios rollout. x.com  x.com 

AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.com 

AMD is trading at its highest valuation in a decade, and another comparison puts it at about three times Nvidia's valuation. x.com 

AMD now has to be extraordinary to justify its valuation, because it is priced on what it must deliver in 2027, not on past results. Despite revenue up 50%, data center up 107%, triple-digit profit growth and above-consensus guidance, the stock fell about 8% after hours; great is not enough when great is already priced in. x.com 

AMD is not crazy expensive at 32x 2027 estimated EPS, because estimates look much too low and the real multiple may be in the low-to-mid 20s. It can probably add more capacity than Intel over the next 6-12 months despite TSMC's leading-edge constraint, and pricing is set to be a tailwind. Some semis look frothy, and AMD may be due for a breather, especially if the Iran war restarts. x.com  x.com 

AMD's numbers remain mediocre, and the stock already trades at what it would earn in 2027 and beyond. @JonahLupton argues AMD is a 2027 story, when growth is expected to accelerate to 60-65% year over year. x.com  x.com