Japan Deep Value
Japanese Equity Research, Deep Value & Below-Book Opportunities
Castor Maritime's controlling holders want the share price as low as possible for the Series D conversion, so they can dilute out minority shareholders and take full control. @valuehunter22 thinks the $0.30 conversion floor is a typo that the 10x reverse split should lift to $3, but it is likely no typo and is the scam itself. Repeated letters to the company have gone unanswered. x.com
Top Ships is a serial diluter worth fading after an 82% spike. The Greek shipper is notorious for shareholder destruction, with an active ATM and a reverse-split history, a $10M market cap and a 4.1M share float. Short interest is 7.7%, with 0.27 days to cover, and the downside target is $0.90. x.com
Cipher Mining's proposed convertible notes make shareholder dilution a more concrete risk. It intends to offer $850 million of notes to fund Barber Lake and its HPC pipeline; conversion can be settled in cash, shares or both, with final terms pending. Stock-based compensation was $57 million last quarter against $24 million in revenue, raising the question of whether management rather than shareholders captures the upside. x.com x.com
FuelCell Energy is a trap rather than an investment because of its long history of diluting shareholders. Its split-adjusted share count rose from 2.0 million in 2019 to 67.6 million in 2026. Per @HyperTechInvest, it is now diluting shareholders by 13% to raise $200M, one month after saying it was comfortable with its balance sheet. x.com
Merlin Labs common stock is in a death spiral toward zero because preferred holders and shorts hold the upper hand. Equity raises have no limit and the preferred ranks senior to the common, so fundamental analysis does not matter. @ShawarmaCapital, a former bull, attributes the fall from $17 to $1.81 to a roughly 44M-share unlock on a thin float, a Series A Preferred conversion reset on October 15 already headed for its $5 floor, and an unwinding short squeeze. x.com x.com
Strategy keeps diluting common shareholders with no end in sight, so bitcoin bulls are better off owning bitcoin directly. It sold another $544M of MSTR through its ATM last week, making its $25M STRC repurchase mere signaling, and bitcoin per share has fallen since June 1. Dilution makes it improbable the shares reach conversion on billions of convertible debt, and larger bitcoin sales grow likelier as the premium compresses, probably alongside a BTC drop. An FTX-style collapse is not expected. … Show more
ReTo Eco-Solutions' 27% jump looks like a dead-cat bounce after its $15M offering on September 17, and worth fading. It is a serial diluter with multiple reverse splits and a market cap of only $7.3M, and its 35.9M-share float with 0.05% short interest makes it easy to borrow with no squeeze risk. x.com
