Enphase and SolarEdge, dead home-solar stocks, have a credible path through a pivot to solid-state transformers, which @tailrisked calls the future of grid technology. It remains a very speculative play warranting only small positions. x.com 

SolarEdge and Enphase are both best positioned for solid-state transformers, and both are mid-term accumulation candidates, with no preference yet between them. Per a post the author replies to, Enphase uses Infineon's GaN bidirectional switches for its SST. Their charts suggest the monster move can continue. x.com  x.com 

Lumentum and Coherent are investments driven by product iteration, while AXT is a bottleneck trade best treated as speculation. Shortage-driven price hikes on the same parts define a cyclical stock, prices quickly discount shortage expectations, and once profits truly climb it is time to exit. Bottlenecks also push customers to design around them and invite new entrants. Investable companies keep lifting margins through yield gains and new products, driving token deflation while growing revenue. … Show more

Sivers Semiconductors is crossing from an engineering and NRE model to a product-led component model, a shift that earns very different multiples. FY2025 revenue rose 25% to SEK304.1m, product revenue reached SEK85.7m (about 28% of sales), and it entered 2026 with a $453m non-binding pipeline. Wireless is the nearer-term, more de-risked engine; photonics for AI interconnects carries larger long-duration upside. The risk is that losses and negative cash flow dilute equity before products scale. … Show more

Sivers Semiconductors is undervalued because its photonics subsidiary's valuation potential is likely grossly mispriced, though that unit deserves a hefty discount until listed. Sivers Photonics failed to list via a SPAC in 2024, even early in the AI boom; the main wireless business is boring; and unlisted subsidiaries trade at deep discounts until holders see a path to monetization. Per @aleabitoreddit, Sivers, a laser maker for hyperscaler photonic supply chains, is valued at only about $200M. … Show more

Sivers Semiconductors was turned into something bigger than it was, is, or probably ever will be by market hype, not by management. Management never really tried to pump the stock and kept mmWave and lidar, the most operationally relevant businesses, at the center of its reporting; the opportunity-pipeline story emerged only once share-price pressure became extreme. The Glasgow expansion replaces outdated capacity but costs money upfront and will take a while to generate meaningful revenue. … Show more

SolarEdge could re-rate from a broken solar story to an emerging AI data-center infrastructure play sooner than expected. It set a $600M solid-state transformer revenue target for 2029, far above a ~$250M base case for 2030, and its 800 VDC conversion stage is running under load in the lab, keeping a working system on track for end-2026. A joint white paper with NVIDIA adds credibility, though NVIDIA does not endorse it and there is no pilot customer or order yet. It is a 2027-2028 play. x.com  … Show more

AI infrastructure and adjacent companies could compound for years as the boom shifts from initial infrastructure seeding to deployment across industries. The positioning list spans compute, manufacturing, networking, storage, power, software, data centers and supporting sectors, with Bloom Energy added later. Focus on real demand and bottlenecks, size for volatility and select conviction plays; some names are speculative or execution-heavy.
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Sivers Semiconductors is expensive because its valuation rests on a $1.2 billion opportunity pipeline, an unreliable KPI. At 15% conversion next year, it trades near 22x 2027 sales versus Lumentum's 14x and Coherent's and AAOI's 5x, and about 13x 2029 sales versus 3-9x for incumbents with contracted LTAs. The InP laser shortage is Lumentum's and Coherent's asset; Sivers gains access only in H2 2027 if all goes to plan and needs the shortage into 2028. It is a swing trade, not a conviction hold. … Show more

An early AI buildout, healthcare data, tokenized finance and copper's clearest supply-demand imbalance favor a 15-stock growth basket now. Marvell, Applied Optoelectronics, Nebius, Eli Lilly, Tempus, Ouster, Regal Rexnord, Bloom Energy, Fluence, SpaceX, Brazil's EWZ ETF, Nu Holdings, Coinbase, Securitize and the COPX copper-miners ETF are the picks. Keep Fluence smaller; SpaceX stays bullish long term despite rejecting $500B-$1T ARR in 2027. x.com