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Macro_Lin

Semiconductor Analyst, AI Chip Design, Ex-Quant/Portfolio Manager

26 Jun, 06:06Latest

The big four US-listed chip equipment makers, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA, are better buys than memory makers. Memory expansion is AI hardware's core bottleneck, and political pressure, already visible in US Commerce Department comments and the SK hynix ADR fundraising, will not let Samsung, SK hynix and Micron expand at their own pace. As in the 2020-21 CHIPS Act era, they will be pushed to expand fast, and equipment vendors become the surest winners, not yet fully priced. x.com x.com x.com x.com

22 Jun, 17:06

Lam Research, KLA and Applied Materials each benefit from upward revisions to memory equipment spending, by different paths. HBM consumes wafer capacity, turning about 27% of DRAM bits into lost bits by 2028, so memory makers must keep buying tools. Applied Materials gains most from DRAM strength in 2026. Lam leads into 2027 as NAND tool spending grows 53% and taller 3D NAND multiplies etch and deposition steps. KLA, with over 50% inspection share, gains as WFE rises to $153B and $196B. x.com

KLAC

AMAT

LRCX

Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

28 Oct

000660.KS

005930.KS

Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more

Finn Stockinger

Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research

29 Oct

000660.KS

005930.KS

More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.com

Feroce Research

Thematic Research, Technical/Macro/Fundamental Analysis & Quantitative Positioning

27 Oct

000660.KS

Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com

CMS Invests

Technology Investor, Options Trader, Finance at Kalshi

29 Oct

SNDK

000660.KS

A worsening memory shortage in 2027 could favor Micron, SanDisk and SK hynix as AI stocks. Samsung warns that the shortage will worsen then. x.com

Simplifying Stocks, CPA

CPA, Creator of FinFluential Television

26 Oct

DRAM

000660.KS

High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.com

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

28 Oct

000660.KS

005930.KS

Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

1 Oct

SNDK

WDC

STX

000660.KS

005930.KS

The memory cycle looks set to last longer than expected because Micron is spending as if AI memory demand will run for years. Its capex was $27.4B in FY26 and about $25B in FY27's first half alone, with the second half expected higher, putting $50B+ in play; Micron wouldn't spend this aggressively if it saw the cycle ending next year. AI is consuming huge amounts of DRAM, NAND and HBM, a shortage that also benefits SK hynix, Samsung, SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Deep Value Investing

Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding

15 Oct

000660.KS

005930.KS

Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com

Just a Dude Who Invests

Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary

29 Oct

SNDK

SKHY

Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

28 Oct

000660.KS

005930.KS

Tight memory supply keeps the AI memory supplier trade in bill-of-materials names if it persists. The investor aleabitoreddit reports an SK hynix shortage outlook through 2030 and an operating-margin result near 80%. HBM allocation and average-selling-price guidance are the next tests; Korea has already priced the earnings print, so the next move depends on who locks capacity. x.com

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