Restaurants are struggling, making Red Robin unattractive to own. Former restaurant ownership and complaints from restaurant-owner friends underpin the short view. x.com 

BJ's Restaurants is overvalued because poor returns on new restaurants keep it from growing, yet the market grants it a higher multiple than Microsoft and 1.5x that of many SaaS companies. The relative valuation is appalling. x.com 

Restaurant Brands International has been getting more attractive, with big operational changes underway behind the scenes. x.com 

Shake Shack is an asymmetric setup: at about 1x sales with a 20%+ restaurant-margin model and $4m AUVs, upside far exceeds downside. Intact unit economics and its balance sheet let it keep adding stores through a slowdown from weak travel, low-end consumers, GLP-1s and inflation, unlike Portillo's balance-sheet or Sweetgreen's model problems; McDonald's did likewise in 2008-09. Same-store sales should stay solidly positive this year when most chains' won't. Execution lags; downside is maybe 30%. … Show more

Restaurant stocks, including Chipotle and Wingstop, are uninvestable right now, with too many better places for money. Most have slowing growth, rising costs and poor margins. Wingstop's growth and margins look better than most, but it is still not a buy. x.com  x.com 

Asset-light businesses that take a cut of every transaction have one of the most powerful business models, pairing low capex and high margins with steady cash flow from royalties and fees. That is the basis for a portfolio of McDonald's, Uber, Texas Pacific Land, Visa, Restaurant Brands International, Marriott, Franco-Nevada, CME Group and Arm, built to test whether such businesses can outperform the market. x.com 

Sweetgreen is just not a great concept, in a restaurant category that has been mauled, and its operating model doesn't add up. There are far easier ways to make money in restaurants and consumer; reaching for quality is safer and probably offers the same upside. It could still work. x.com 

The Cheesecake Factory at 25 times next-twelve-month earnings looks attractive as a short. Restaurant valuations can be highly cyclical, though past fast-casual names reached 55 times earnings with 20% growth. x.com  x.com 

McDonald's roughly $8.5 billion plan to help franchisees serve better food, improve service and simplify restaurants comes too late and will likely end the same way as Wendy's. Plunging real estate values add further pressure on McDonald's. x.com  x.com 

McDonald's leadership has lost credibility: at a major investor day, the CEO is only "hoping" for a turnaround, which is reason enough for shareholders to sell. The brand has drifted far from the era of movie tie-in glasses and toys for films like Shrek and Toy Story, and now the CEO does not even want to eat the food. x.com