Shake Shack is starting to look cheap after a sharp selloff on beef-cost and consumer worries, despite solid growth and margins. Q2 revenue grew 17.2%, restaurant-level margins reached 23% and free cash flow is positive. It owns no real estate, so it is a bet on the brand, restaurant economics and expansion across its 703 restaurants. The key question is whether those margins hold as it grows. x.com 

Shake Shack remains a long-term position despite cutting its guidance, citing uncertainty and competition. The second-quarter result was not surprising, but the lift needed in the second half looks hard to achieve. x.com 

Shake Shack's plan to grow revenue 50% over the next three years is unlikely to work out well for shareholders because the chain already has major quality-control problems. Recent personal visits have been bad. x.com 

Restaurant Brands' strong defensive profile masks a weak growth engine, a combination that is a trap. Restaurants hold up well in a recession, but QSR's long-term upside looks thin, even as @ErnestWongBWM calls Burger King's 8.6% US comp a narrative violation. x.com 

McDonald's is likely to see its metrics hurt over the next year by the rising cost of supporting struggling franchisees. Its rent and royalties hide franchisee pain: US same-store sales rose about 35% while prices rose about 40%, so traffic is likely shrinking, and sales growth slowed to 0.8% in Q2. Per their association, 95% of owners said Q1 profit fell. With remodels costing $400K-$700K per restaurant, McDonald's agreed to take on $8.5B through 2036 in lower rent and capex support. x.com 

Shake Shack is still too expensive at about 40x forward earnings, a premium valuation to pay right now. That pushes back on a post the author replies to, which turned bullish on Shake Shack because everyone was dunking on it. x.com 

Restaurant stocks, including Chipotle and Wingstop, are uninvestable right now, with too many better places for money. Most have slowing growth, rising costs and poor margins. Wingstop's growth and margins look better than most, but it is still not a buy. x.com  x.com 

Restaurants are struggling, making Red Robin unattractive to own. Former restaurant ownership and complaints from restaurant-owner friends underpin the short view. x.com 

Shake Shack makes almost no money on about $1.5B of annual revenue despite its brand and traffic, and its overhead is not scaling. Per AlphaSense, Q1 revenue rose 14.3% to $366.7M and same-Shack sales rose 4.6%, but adjusted net income was just $0.1M with a $2.6M operating loss. G&A and D&A per store are about the same as in 2015 with 30 units; allocating costs to corporate makes the restaurants look profitable without real expense leverage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Cheesecake Factory now looks more like a momentum trade than a genuine long-term compounder, with its valuation hard to justify. The stock is up 118% this year after an updated app with a free slice of cheesecake lifted traffic and accelerated revenue growth from 4% to 7%, with quarterly revenue topping $1 billion for the first time. But its P/E has surged from 13 to 32 times, and 21 times earnings three years out is difficult to justify for a restaurant business. x.com