Shake Shack makes almost no money on about $1.5B of annual revenue despite its brand and traffic, and its overhead is not scaling. Per AlphaSense, Q1 revenue rose 14.3% to $366.7M and same-Shack sales rose 4.6%, but adjusted net income was just $0.1M with a $2.6M operating loss. G&A and D&A per store are about the same as in 2015 with 30 units; allocating costs to corporate makes the restaurants look profitable without real expense leverage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shake Shack is still too expensive at about 40x forward earnings, a premium valuation to pay right now. That pushes back on a post the author replies to, which turned bullish on Shake Shack because everyone was dunking on it. x.com 

Shake Shack is starting to look cheap after a sharp selloff on beef-cost and consumer worries, despite solid growth and margins. Q2 revenue grew 17.2%, restaurant-level margins reached 23% and free cash flow is positive. It owns no real estate, so it is a bet on the brand, restaurant economics and expansion across its 703 restaurants. The key question is whether those margins hold as it grows. x.com 

Mid-tier restaurant chains like Shake Shack and CAVA face rising input costs they will struggle to pass on. Cattle prices are at an all-time high, and the war is set to raise packaging costs alongside surging transportation costs, driven partly by oil and mostly by CDL licensing rules. Low-end chains McDonald's and Yum keep pushing value pricing to win back consumers, limiting mid-tier pricing power heading into earnings. x.com 

McDonald's leadership has lost credibility: at a major investor day, the CEO is only "hoping" for a turnaround, which is reason enough for shareholders to sell. The brand has drifted far from the era of movie tie-in glasses and toys for films like Shrek and Toy Story, and now the CEO does not even want to eat the food. x.com 

Shake Shack remains a long-term position despite cutting its guidance, citing uncertainty and competition. The second-quarter result was not surprising, but the lift needed in the second half looks hard to achieve. x.com 

Restaurant stocks, including Chipotle and Wingstop, are uninvestable right now, with too many better places for money. Most have slowing growth, rising costs and poor margins. Wingstop's growth and margins look better than most, but it is still not a buy. x.com  x.com 

Restaurant Brands' strong defensive profile masks a weak growth engine, a combination that is a trap. Restaurants hold up well in a recession, but QSR's long-term upside looks thin, even as @ErnestWongBWM calls Burger King's 8.6% US comp a narrative violation. x.com 

Shake Shack is an asymmetric setup: at about 1x sales with a 20%+ restaurant-margin model and $4m AUVs, upside far exceeds downside. Intact unit economics and its balance sheet let it keep adding stores through a slowdown from weak travel, low-end consumers, GLP-1s and inflation, unlike Portillo's balance-sheet or Sweetgreen's model problems; McDonald's did likewise in 2008-09. Same-store sales should stay solidly positive this year when most chains' won't. Execution lags; downside is maybe 30%. … Show more

McDonald's is likely to see its metrics hurt over the next year by the rising cost of supporting struggling franchisees. Its rent and royalties hide franchisee pain: US same-store sales rose about 35% while prices rose about 40%, so traffic is likely shrinking, and sales growth slowed to 0.8% in Q2. Per their association, 95% of owners said Q1 profit fell. With remodels costing $400K-$700K per restaurant, McDonald's agreed to take on $8.5B through 2036 in lower rent and capex support. x.com