Shake Shack's plan to grow revenue 50% over the next three years is unlikely to work out well for shareholders because the chain already has major quality-control problems. Recent personal visits have been bad. x.com 

Shake Shack makes almost no money on about $1.5B of annual revenue despite its brand and traffic, and its overhead is not scaling. Per AlphaSense, Q1 revenue rose 14.3% to $366.7M and same-Shack sales rose 4.6%, but adjusted net income was just $0.1M with a $2.6M operating loss. G&A and D&A per store are about the same as in 2015 with 30 units; allocating costs to corporate makes the restaurants look profitable without real expense leverage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shake Shack is starting to look cheap after a sharp selloff on beef-cost and consumer worries, despite solid growth and margins. Q2 revenue grew 17.2%, restaurant-level margins reached 23% and free cash flow is positive. It owns no real estate, so it is a bet on the brand, restaurant economics and expansion across its 703 restaurants. The key question is whether those margins hold as it grows. x.com 

The Cheesecake Factory at 25 times next-twelve-month earnings looks attractive as a short. Restaurant valuations can be highly cyclical, though past fast-casual names reached 55 times earnings with 20% growth. x.com  x.com 

Mid-tier restaurant chains like Shake Shack and CAVA face rising input costs they will struggle to pass on. Cattle prices are at an all-time high, and the war is set to raise packaging costs alongside surging transportation costs, driven partly by oil and mostly by CDL licensing rules. Low-end chains McDonald's and Yum keep pushing value pricing to win back consumers, limiting mid-tier pricing power heading into earnings. x.com 

Shake Shack is an asymmetric setup: at about 1x sales with a 20%+ restaurant-margin model and $4m AUVs, upside far exceeds downside. Intact unit economics and its balance sheet let it keep adding stores through a slowdown from weak travel, low-end consumers, GLP-1s and inflation, unlike Portillo's balance-sheet or Sweetgreen's model problems; McDonald's did likewise in 2008-09. Same-store sales should stay solidly positive this year when most chains' won't. Execution lags; downside is maybe 30%. … Show more

Restaurant Brands International has been getting more attractive, with big operational changes underway behind the scenes. x.com 

BJ's Restaurants is overvalued because poor returns on new restaurants keep it from growing, yet the market grants it a higher multiple than Microsoft and 1.5x that of many SaaS companies. The relative valuation is appalling. x.com 

Shake Shack remains a long-term position despite cutting its guidance, citing uncertainty and competition. The second-quarter result was not surprising, but the lift needed in the second half looks hard to achieve. x.com 

Texas Roadhouse is a truly great company but a bit rich at 25x even the lowest forward earnings estimates, making it a tough call. x.com