ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com 

ASML's planned 2027-28 output cannot meet customer demand, supporting a Buy rating and €1,830 target. Long-term customer down payments rose from €3.6bn to €9.3bn; customers seek 2029-30 orders that ASML has not accepted. Critical-tool price rises begin in 2027, with full effect in 2028, but are not meant to recur annually. Q3 EPS excluding a €509.7m investment gain still beat consensus. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ASML faces moat erosion now that China has a homegrown alternative to its machines. The Information reports a state-backed Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools. Chinese fabs stockpiling older DUV tools had become a major revenue driver, with China at 36% of sales in 2024 and 29% last year. Output is tiny, about five machines this year and maybe twenty next. But once a second supplier exists, the question shifts from "no alternative" to "for how long." x.com 

ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com 

ASML's selloff on China's domestic DUV news is an overreaction because the revenue hit is small and China is nowhere on EUV, ASML's real moat. China is making about five DUV machines this year versus the hundreds ASML delivers. BofA, which also calls the selloff an overreaction, estimates China going domestic cuts ASML's sales by about EUR 1.4B next year, or 2.4%, yet the stock fell about 6%. It helps China's chip independence far down the road but leaves ASML oversold today. x.com  x.com 

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com  x.com  … Show more

ASML's growing installed base generates recurring service revenue that raises its revenue floor during industry downturns. Fiscal.ai's chart shows quarterly service and field option revenue of 3,289 million in September 2026. ASML's CEO says planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and the company is exploring capacity beyond the previously communicated 30% increase for 2028. x.com  x.com 

ASML's tightened sales guidance raises the floor for its growth outlook as management has become more confident in this year's forecast. Analyst targets imply 35.7% upside from here. x.com 

ASML could break down from here on the China news. x.com 

ASML's sharp profit growth supports its $2,100 stock valuation. Stock Analysis reports quarterly profit rose from €2.0 billion a year earlier to €4.8 billion. The new call is below the earlier $3,000 valuation based on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly. x.com