Schulz Duggan
AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing
ASML's planned 2027-28 output cannot meet customer demand, supporting a Buy rating and €1,830 target. Long-term customer down payments rose from €3.6bn to €9.3bn; customers seek 2029-30 orders that ASML has not accepted. Critical-tool price rises begin in 2027, with full effect in 2028, but are not meant to recur annually. Q3 EPS excluding a €509.7m investment gain still beat consensus. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
ASML's High-NA EUV revenue rides mostly on one customer, Intel's 14A ramp, a single-customer curve in an industry-trend costume. TSMC keeps the tool out of A14 production on cost, per C.C. Wei, and Samsung delays it to its roughly 2030 SF1A node as the technology still needs work. Deposition and materials collect the growing 1nm bill from all three roadmaps instead. If TSMC pulls High-NA into the node after A14 or tool economics shift, the single-payer stretch ends about two years earlier. x.com
ASML's EUV R&D is starting to pay off through operating leverage. Q3 R&D fell as a share of sales, though one quarter is not a trend. Higher units, IBM sales and EUV/DUV prices put 2028 estimates well above the 2030 guide and ahead of consensus; shares look cheap at €1,530. Assuming 30% prepayment, liabilities imply €42-45bn of orders in 2026's first nine months, subject to invoicing lags. The proposed MATCH Act could restrict China sales; 2029-30 demand is less certain than 2028. x.com x.com … Show more
ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com
ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com x.com … Show more
ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com
ASML's tightened sales guidance raises the floor for its growth outlook as management has become more confident in this year's forecast. Analyst targets imply 35.7% upside from here. x.com
ASML is an amazing business, but it is pricey right now. x.com
ASML's earnings beat and higher 2026 guidance suggest its run is not stopping anytime soon. EPS of €12.95 exceeded the €10.60 estimate, and full-year guidance was raised to €44-45B. x.com
ASML's growing installed base generates recurring service revenue that raises its revenue floor during industry downturns. Fiscal.ai's chart shows quarterly service and field option revenue of 3,289 million in September 2026. ASML's CEO says planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and the company is exploring capacity beyond the previously communicated 30% increase for 2028. x.com x.com
ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com x.com
ASML's sharp profit growth supports its $2,100 stock valuation. Stock Analysis reports quarterly profit rose from €2.0 billion a year earlier to €4.8 billion. The new call is below the earlier $3,000 valuation based on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly. x.com
