Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
ASML's Q2 2026 beat and sharply raised outlook confirm the bullish call. Net sales of €9.3B topped €8.4-9.0B guidance, with €2.9B of net income and a 54.0% gross margin. Q3 sales are guided to €11-12B at 55-57% gross margin, and full-year 2026 guidance rose to €43-45B from €36-40B, alongside a €1.1B buyback and a €1.88 interim dividend. x.com
ASML's tightened sales guidance raises the floor for its growth outlook as management has become more confident in this year's forecast. Analyst targets imply 35.7% upside from here. x.com
ASML's planned 2027-28 output cannot meet customer demand, supporting a Buy rating and €1,830 target. Long-term customer down payments rose from €3.6bn to €9.3bn; customers seek 2029-30 orders that ASML has not accepted. Critical-tool price rises begin in 2027, with full effect in 2028, but are not meant to recur annually. Q3 EPS excluding a €509.7m investment gain still beat consensus. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com x.com
ASML's sharp profit growth supports its $2,100 stock valuation. Stock Analysis reports quarterly profit rose from €2.0 billion a year earlier to €4.8 billion. The new call is below the earlier $3,000 valuation based on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly. x.com
ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com
ASML is an amazing business, but it is pricey right now. x.com
AI demand is benefiting ASML's lithography-machine business immensely. It could be the widest-moat company ever, and analysts expect revenue to rise 50% and earnings 94% ahead of its report. x.com
ASML looks undervalued, a rare sight for this company, because its long-term AI opportunity is much bigger than the market is pricing in. AI is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML sits right in the middle of that buildout. Q2 revenue reached €9.3B with €2.9B in net income, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43B-€45B. x.com x.com
ASML's valuation is almost back to its 2021 high. x.com
ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com