Investing visuals
Technology Investor, Visual Company Research
ASML has strong fundamentals, but other setups now offer better risk-reward, so most of the position accumulated through 2025 has been sold and the capital rotated elsewhere. x.com
ASML is not undervalued at its current valuation of about 46.4 times earnings with a PEG ratio of nearly 3. x.com
Accelerating earnings mean ASML is not expensive right now. It trades at 24x forward earnings and 19x forward EV/EBITDA. x.com
ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com x.com
ASML's valuation is almost back to its 2021 high. x.com
ASML is cheap against its earnings at 29x next year's, versus the 36x chip-equipment makers usually get. Fair value is $1,883 to $2,397, or 36x next year's $60.08 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the stock 9% below the low end. The read leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 104% above trailing, and is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work. x.com
ASML lacks the growth it needs, even though @mzuhair123 makes a good case that High-NA going mainstream by decade-end will strengthen its Dutch hegemony. x.com
ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com
ASML's sharp profit growth supports its $2,100 stock valuation. Stock Analysis reports quarterly profit rose from €2.0 billion a year earlier to €4.8 billion. The new call is below the earlier $3,000 valuation based on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly. x.com
Lam Research's record results suggest the equipment cycle is not ending despite its stock selloff. Revenue reached $8.22B, up 54% year over year and over 20% sequentially, while EPS rose 75%; ASML and TSMC also report customers needing more tools. Overweight with a $355 target and 35% upside, but the selloff is a gift only if Lam guides December higher. x.com x.com