ASML's valuation is almost back to its 2021 high. x.com 

ASML is an amazing business, but it is pricey right now. x.com 

Accelerating earnings mean ASML is not expensive right now. It trades at 24x forward earnings and 19x forward EV/EBITDA. x.com 

ASML has strong fundamentals, but other setups now offer better risk-reward, so most of the position accumulated through 2025 has been sold and the capital rotated elsewhere. x.com 

ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com  x.com 

ASML looks undervalued, a rare sight for this company, because its long-term AI opportunity is much bigger than the market is pricing in. AI is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML sits right in the middle of that buildout. Q2 revenue reached €9.3B with €2.9B in net income, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43B-€45B. x.com  x.com 

ASML lacks the growth it needs, even though @mzuhair123 makes a good case that High-NA going mainstream by decade-end will strengthen its Dutch hegemony. x.com 

ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com 

ASML is cheap against its earnings at 29x next year's, versus the 36x chip-equipment makers usually get. Fair value is $1,883 to $2,397, or 36x next year's $60.08 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the stock 9% below the low end. The read leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 104% above trailing, and is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work. x.com 

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com  x.com  … Show more