ASML is an amazing business, but it is pricey right now. x.com 

ASML's valuation is almost back to its 2021 high. x.com 

Accelerating earnings mean ASML is not expensive right now. It trades at 24x forward earnings and 19x forward EV/EBITDA. x.com 

ASML is not undervalued at its current valuation of about 46.4 times earnings with a PEG ratio of nearly 3. x.com 

ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com  x.com 

ASML is cheap against its earnings at 29x next year's, versus the 36x chip-equipment makers usually get. Fair value is $1,883 to $2,397, or 36x next year's $60.08 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the stock 9% below the low end. The read leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 104% above trailing, and is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work. x.com 

ASML lacks the growth it needs, even though @mzuhair123 makes a good case that High-NA going mainstream by decade-end will strengthen its Dutch hegemony. x.com 

ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com 

ASML's planned 2027-28 output cannot meet customer demand, supporting a Buy rating and €1,830 target. Long-term customer down payments rose from €3.6bn to €9.3bn; customers seek 2029-30 orders that ASML has not accepted. Critical-tool price rises begin in 2027, with full effect in 2028, but are not meant to recur annually. Q3 EPS excluding a €509.7m investment gain still beat consensus. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ASML has yet to fall despite losing its biggest customer, TSMC, until 2029, a customer responsible for 70% of its revenue. That disconnect reflects the current state of the chip bubble. x.com