ASML looks undervalued, a rare sight for this company, because its long-term AI opportunity is much bigger than the market is pricing in. AI is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML sits right in the middle of that buildout. Q2 revenue reached €9.3B with €2.9B in net income, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43B-€45B. x.com  x.com 

ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com 

ASML has yet to fall despite losing its biggest customer, TSMC, until 2029, a customer responsible for 70% of its revenue. That disconnect reflects the current state of the chip bubble. x.com 

ASML's sharp profit growth supports its $2,100 stock valuation. Stock Analysis reports quarterly profit rose from €2.0 billion a year earlier to €4.8 billion. The new call is below the earlier $3,000 valuation based on ASML's EUV lithography monopoly. x.com 

ASML's tightened sales guidance raises the floor for its growth outlook as management has become more confident in this year's forecast. Analyst targets imply 35.7% upside from here. x.com 

ASML faces moat erosion now that China has a homegrown alternative to its machines. The Information reports a state-backed Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools. Chinese fabs stockpiling older DUV tools had become a major revenue driver, with China at 36% of sales in 2024 and 29% last year. Output is tiny, about five machines this year and maybe twenty next. But once a second supplier exists, the question shifts from "no alternative" to "for how long." x.com 

ASML's earnings beat and higher 2026 guidance suggest its run is not stopping anytime soon. EPS of €12.95 exceeded the €10.60 estimate, and full-year guidance was raised to €44-45B. x.com 

ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com 

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com  x.com  … Show more

ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com