Newmont is basically levered gold with little potential for discovery upside, and it is likely to pay high prices buying other companies. x.comÂ
Andy Heilman
Principal Owner of MH & Associates
Agnico Eagle is so cheap on a relative basis that there is little reason to buy Newmont. The best-in-class gold miners have never been of higher quality: diversified production, high margins, negligible or negative debt, no risky jurisdictions, strong management, and growth both organic and through M&A. They are extremely cheap at current gold prices, with no gold forecast needed, and low beta. Unlike when they looked cheap in 2011, margins are much fatter and debt and capex lower. x.com x.com … Show more
Gold miners have not yet priced in what record gold prices mean for the sector, and the window to get in is shrinking. Newmont beat Q1 profit estimates even though output fell, showing the gold price tailwind is covering operational shortfalls; earnings should rise further when production normalizes. The majors have pricing power they have not had in years and operating leverage is building, while most investors remain in tech. x.com x.comÂ
Newmont fell 10% on the week despite record Q1 free cash flow of $3.1B and a fresh $6B buyback, leaving it at a forward P/E of 9.58 on a $116B market cap. CIBC raised its target to $177 from $112 and Scotiabank to $152 from $114. Cadia is back to 80% capacity, with full normalization expected in Q3 2026. x.com x.comÂ
Gold and precious-metals miners are at the start of a new bull market, judging by the crowds and packed meeting schedules at the 2026 Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek. buzzsprout.comÂ
Gold is falling because a resilient, accelerating economy pushes yields and the dollar higher, and no one wants safe havens in a risk-on market. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is accelerating, and yields are rising even as crude falls, so the move reflects growth rather than inflation fears; the bond market is giving the Fed permission to hike. Gold, precious metals, Treasuries and defensive stocks have slumped, with staples and utilities at all-time lows relative to the S&P 500. x.comÂ
Gold miners, led by Newmont, stand to gain from 2026's rotation into hard assets as inflation stays entrenched. US CPI sits at 3.8%, nearly double the Fed's target, with energy up 18% and natural gas up 28% year over year, leaving cash and paper assets as losers and gold as the ultimate inflation hedge. Central banks in China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are expected to buy nearly 1,000 tons of gold this year. Newmont is the largest blue-chip gold miner on the planet. x.comÂ
Gold miners, unlike gold itself, turn a higher gold price into compounding cash returns. On a path to $8,000 gold, margins would widen far beyond today's roughly $2,400 an ounce even if all-in sustaining costs rose a third to $2,650. Free cash flow per share is at a record of about $15.70, roughly tripled since 2024, and the industry is buying back stock rather than mines, a combination never seen before. Relative to the S&P 500, miners have never been cheaper, not in 2008, 2015 or 2020. x.com … Show more
Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold fit the case for owning hard assets, because the end game is very likely the dollar, along with the pound, the euro and other major fiat currencies, going much lower. Gold, platinum, silver and copper are the assets to hold against that. x.comÂ
Gold miners Agnico Eagle, B2Gold and Newmont are worth buying aggressively because, per Willem Middelkoop (@wmiddelkoop), gold mining shares are dirt cheap again compared with gold. x.comÂ
Gold miners look like most of the damage is done: gold is down over $1,500 from its top and miners about 40%, with sentiment and positioning near capitulation. Gold's Daily Sentiment Index fell to 14% bullish, speculative open interest is below the late-2015 bottom, the miners' bullish percent index hit 0% and gold's RSI is the lowest since October 2023. Gold could still fall on Hormuz, dollar strength and seasonality, but Chinese buying, de-dollarization and miners' cash flows remain. x.comÂ