Teng Yan
Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research
Shorter HBM stacks are not reducing demand for SK hynix's HBM, because customers are redesigning AI accelerators around limited supply. On its call, management said lower stacks let customers build more accelerators; supplying the same bit volume then requires more packages, base dies and back-end processing. Denser dies can offset some lost layers, and SK hynix says customer volume requests exceed twice its current supply. x.com
SK hynix and Samsung's selloff is probably a blip because Korean memory-chip shipments have not turned. Exports were about 4.6 times their year-earlier level in September, a record month; the selling reflects concern over what China might ship in 2027, not a turn in this quarter's shipments. x.com
Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.com
Tight memory supply keeps the AI memory supplier trade in bill-of-materials names if it persists. The investor aleabitoreddit reports an SK hynix shortage outlook through 2030 and an operating-margin result near 80%. HBM allocation and average-selling-price guidance are the next tests; Korea has already priced the earnings print, so the next move depends on who locks capacity. x.com
HBM stack height should leave excess DRAM wafers, driving the current memory short. The short this time is specifically about HBM, not all memory. x.com
High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.com
SK hynix stands to benefit from higher HBM prices as supply remains constrained. Needham expects HBM price increases next year and tight memory supply through 2030; SK hynix has finalized 2027 HBM prices and volumes with major customers. SK hynix also plans roughly KRW100 trillion in FY2026 shareholder returns, including at least KRW30 trillion in dividends and KRW60 trillion in share acquisitions and cancellations. x.com x.com
Nvidia's proposed common NVHBM base die would make Micron, SK hynix and Samsung more interchangeable, weakening their pricing power. Seoul Economic Daily reports Nvidia wants all three to fabricate it at TSMC; Samsung reportedly agreed. Standardization would ease validation and order shifts. The risk lessens if SK hynix or Micron retain their own logic or NVHBM stays a small share of Nvidia's purchases. x.com
Micron and SK hynix face more memory demand than sell-side shortage estimates show because those estimates use configurations customers have already reduced to fit supply. Dan Ives cited 13 requests per unit of memory capacity; after removing double-counted orders and destroyed demand, the estimate is closer to 8-10 to 1. Configuration changes, KV-cache offloading and deferred developments hide demand for customers' preferred HBM designs. x.com
Sold-out HBM and cash returns make SK hynix look too cheap for a memory cycle that has not ended. Its HBM capacity is sold through 2027, 12-layer HBM4 is shipping, and next year's HBM prices are forecast to rise 121%. A completed ₩40T buyback adds shareholder returns; a special dividend funded by a Kioxia stake sale is possible. At roughly 4x earnings by one estimate, the shares could go higher if the AI memory cycle persists. x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
Higher HBM stack requirements favor Samsung Electronics shares, even as the broader semiconductor industry suffers and DRAM is in dire straits. Daishin Securities says plans for 4-high and 6-high HBM in low-end inference appear shelved, while Nvidia's 8-high Rubin option appears dropped amid base-die supply constraints and customers' preference for bandwidth. x.com
