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Nvidia's proposed common NVHBM base die would make Micron, SK hynix and Samsung more interchangeable, weakening their pricing power. Seoul Economic Daily reports Nvidia wants all three to fabricate it at TSMC; Samsung reportedly agreed. Standardization would ease validation and order shifts. The risk lessens if SK hynix or Micron retain their own logic or NVHBM stays a small share of Nvidia's purchases. x.com
Memory prices can fall even as consumption rises if new output and distributor stock sales outrun demand. Chinese manufacturers reportedly have lithography machines stockpiled for three to four years of expansion, potentially sustaining capacity growth despite delivery sanctions. Reports of large DDR distributor inventories suggest another source of supply if stocks are sold down, though the inventory estimates have not been verified. x.com
TSMC gains leverage in custom HBM because Nvidia reportedly standardized its NVHBM base die on TSMC's 3nm process, even for Samsung's stacks. Seoul Economic Daily reports Samsung accepted while retaining its own 4nm base dies for standard HBM4/HBM4E and AMD custom HBM, and validating a fallback for Nvidia. That weakens Samsung's all-in-one memory, foundry, packaging and photonics pitch to Nvidia, though its bundle can still serve other customers. x.com
Nvidia's request to have TSMC make 3nm base dies for custom NVHBM makes regular investing in TSMC look hard to go wrong. Nvidia has asked Samsung, SK hynix and Micron to route the work to TSMC; Samsung has accepted. For a large addition, waiting until the major semiconductor companies' earnings are mostly out is safer. x.com
More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.com
HBM suppliers could earn more revenue and higher margins as yields improve at higher pin speeds. Nvidia wants more HBM and needs its suppliers to improve yield; the reported pin-speed reduction was most likely a yield issue, not evidence that SK hynix and Micron failed. x.com
Samsung Electronics' HBM4 pricing looks set to lead the memory Big Three, helping make next year's earnings phenomenal. Samsung memory EVP Jaejune Kim said next year's HBM supply is sold out at target prices, with more customer requests coming. Korean media had reported quotes in the mid-to-high $4/Gb range; Nvidia appears to have accepted Samsung's asking price. Samsung-equipped Rubin variants should sell as separate premium-priced SKUs against SK hynix or Micron versions. x.com
Higher HBM stack requirements favor Samsung Electronics shares, even as the broader semiconductor industry suffers and DRAM is in dire straits. Daishin Securities says plans for 4-high and 6-high HBM in low-end inference appear shelved, while Nvidia's 8-high Rubin option appears dropped amid base-die supply constraints and customers' preference for bandwidth. x.com
A memory-chip shortage lasting until 2030 is good for Nvidia. SK hynix expects that shortage and reports a 632% profit jump. x.com
Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com
Samsung's HBM4 ramp makes SK hynix's ability to defend its HBM lead the key question in the memory race. Chosun Biz reports SK hynix's HBM4 shipments may have missed expectations for a second straight quarter amid Nvidia Rubin delays and chip tuning. Counterpoint puts Samsung's Q2 HBM share at 33%, up from 21%; TrendForce expects strong SK hynix Q3 profits. Samsung is the preferred memory stock right now, though there may be no single clear winner. SK hynix's October 28 report is the next check. … Show more
SK hynix weighing Intel Foundry for HBM4E base dies would be the validation Intel Foundry has been waiting for: a customer judging it on cost and capability for the most in-demand product in semiconductors, not a subsidy or national-security case. Per @jukan05, SK hynix wants to diversify beyond TSMC, whose base die reportedly costs 3-4x the core memory die, a cost it cannot pass through under long-term HBM deals. Its packaging VP is also evaluating Intel's EMIB against TSMC's CoWoS. x.com
