Research & Invest
Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
Shorter HBM stacks are not reducing demand for SK hynix's HBM, because customers are redesigning AI accelerators around limited supply. On its call, management said lower stacks let customers build more accelerators; supplying the same bit volume then requires more packages, base dies and back-end processing. Denser dies can offset some lost layers, and SK hynix says customer volume requests exceed twice its current supply. x.comÂ
HBM advances are creating strong, durable moats and long-term pricing power for Micron and SK hynix. x.comÂ
Chip stocks face an oversupply, and oversupplied chips get dumped: AMD sold restricted chips into China at 20% of the US retail price, per a report cited in the post. The same pressure threatens Nvidia, SanDisk, Micron, Broadcom, SK hynix and semiconductor and memory ETFs. x.comÂ
Higher HBM stack requirements favor Samsung Electronics shares, even as the broader semiconductor industry suffers and DRAM is in dire straits. Daishin Securities says plans for 4-high and 6-high HBM in low-end inference appear shelved, while Nvidia's 8-high Rubin option appears dropped amid base-die supply constraints and customers' preference for bandwidth. x.comÂ
More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.comÂ
Memory stocks are at the peak of the cycle, and FOMO buying into Micron and SanDisk now could be one of the dumbest moves. Chinese factories are coming online at lightning speed, which is why Micron is signing multi-year deals, and pricing power is peaking right now. The market is forward-looking, so a low forward P/E matters little if net income drops 60-90% a few years out. Per Kalshi, the memory ETF just passed $25 billion in assets for the first time. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Samsung's HBM4 ramp makes SK hynix's ability to defend its HBM lead the key question in the memory race. Chosun Biz reports SK hynix's HBM4 shipments may have missed expectations for a second straight quarter amid Nvidia Rubin delays and chip tuning. Counterpoint puts Samsung's Q2 HBM share at 33%, up from 21%; TrendForce expects strong SK hynix Q3 profits. Samsung is the preferred memory stock right now, though there may be no single clear winner. SK hynix's October 28 report is the next check. … Show more
Nvidia's proposed common NVHBM base die would make Micron, SK hynix and Samsung more interchangeable, weakening their pricing power. Seoul Economic Daily reports Nvidia wants all three to fabricate it at TSMC; Samsung reportedly agreed. Standardization would ease validation and order shifts. The risk lessens if SK hynix or Micron retain their own logic or NVHBM stays a small share of Nvidia's purchases. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF looks vulnerable because its late launch fits the pattern of Wall Street selling hot themes to the public shortly before they top. DRAM was a monster trade of 2026 in April and May, led by Sandisk and Micron. It topped two months after debut and is rolling into Stage 4 against its 10-week EMA; the similarly late-launched FOTO photonics ETF topped in just two weeks. x.comÂ
SK hynix stands to benefit from higher HBM prices as supply remains constrained. Needham expects HBM price increases next year and tight memory supply through 2030; SK hynix has finalized 2027 HBM prices and volumes with major customers. SK hynix also plans roughly KRW100 trillion in FY2026 shareholder returns, including at least KRW30 trillion in dividends and KRW60 trillion in share acquisitions and cancellations. x.com x.comÂ