TrumpGrift Capital
Equity Investing Commentary
Amazon's bear narratives, from oil and its exposure to a possibly peak-timed Anthropic IPO to consumer slowdown and Bezos selling, miss that AWS growth has accelerated. AWS was growing 17% a year ago with the stock at $230; it now grows over 40%, yet the stock is only $258. The stock has already given back half its earnings pop. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth remains strong despite slight earnings misses. AWS revenue rose 39% year over year in Q3. Increased 2027 capex could still weigh on the shares in the short term, even if demand continues to rise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS grew 39% on $46 billion of quarterly revenue, outweighing concern over the stock's 10% after-hours decline. Amazon is a buy below $200. x.comÂ
Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth still drives its valuation, making the post-earnings decline look temporary despite misses elsewhere. AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, above the $45.4 billion expected; Jassy sees growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Earnings, advertising and Q4 sales guidance missed expectations, while trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth makes the earnings dip a buying opportunity. Sam Badawi says AWS grew 39% to $46 billion in the quarter; DudeWhoInvests says AWS is projected to grow more than 40% in 2027 and 2028. Buying the dip looks wise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon looks set to rally into its Q1 report and then fall again, because heavy non-AWS investment weighs on operating income and the stock works in harvest years, not investment years. A clean operating income guide needs a huge AWS beat to flow through, and people already put out very high AWS numbers. Layoffs help, but not enough against data-center and fulfillment efficiency comps. It is a crowded long that has crushed Microsoft on relative performance, with market caps approaching parity. … Show more
AWS's near-40% growth and agents' limited adoption make negative pre-earnings sentiment toward Amazon look misplaced. AWS was expected to have one of its best quarters and reported $184B ARR, up 39.3%, close to the projected $185B and 40%. Agents remain far from mainstream, so agentic e-commerce disruption was not expected to show up this quarter. x.com x.com x.comÂ
